Freeze Warning 4, NWS Mobile, AL

638 
WWUS74 KMOB 280407
NPWMOB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1107 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

.A COLD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND WILL BE CALM ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR DROP
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING
COLDEST AROUND SUNRISE OR A LITTLE AFTER.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FZ.W.0004.130328T0600Z-130328T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...
JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...
LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
1107 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...DROPPING TO 32 DEGREES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
  MANY AREAS NORTH OF OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO
  CITRONELLE ALABAMA TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
  20S AROUND SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN THE
  NORTHWEST.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL AFFECT 
  TENDER PLANTS AND NEW GROWTH AS WELL AS PETS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS...NEW GROWTH...
AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PETS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

&&

$$

564 
WWUS74 KMOB 281232
NPWMOB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
732 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

...FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
WARMING...THUS THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281345-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130328T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...
JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...
LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
732 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING. 

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
WARMING...THUS THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
309 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
FA AND POINTS NORTH WILL GET A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHOVE TONIGHT AS A
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST...PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE FA. STILL HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE FA...SO AM EXPECTING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. THE
BIGGEST BEAR FOR TONIGHT IS WHICH COLD SOLUTION TO BASE THE
FORECAST. WITH LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST COLDER THAN EITHER THE REGULAR
GUIDANCE...PHYSICAL OR STATISTICAL... AND SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR
TONIGHT...HAVE STARTED WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE (GFS/MAV) AND
BUMPED IT DOWN A SCOOCH.

WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FA THURSDAY...THE
SURFACE RIDGE GETS PUSHED EAST A BIT MORE. GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A WARMER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY FOR HIGH TEMPS ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED...BUT WARMER THAN
TODAY. /16

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND RISING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE WEATHER STAYS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 925-850 MB
WINDS. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SEMI ZONAL
BY SUNDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
UNDER LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MLCAPES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THE LACK OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM PRECLUDES RAISING RAIN CHANCES ANY HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD WNW UPPER FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE RESOLVED
UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM
COMBINED WITH WET BULB ZEROES BELOW 10000 FT MAY RESULT IN A FEW
CASES OF HAIL IN STRONGER PULSE STORMS. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD AIRMASS TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE COOL AND SHALLOW IN NATURE...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT.
GFS/ECMWF NOW CLOSER ON TIMING OF FROPA...NARROWING IT DOWN SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH SMALL
RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH RAIN PROBABILITIES INCREASING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. COOLER WEATHER LOOKS MORE
LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH...SO LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED
IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT. MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE FROPA GIVEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES MAY RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH FROM OVER THE FA WILL GET
SLOW EASTWARD PUSHES INTO FRIDAY...WITH A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BECOMING EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK AS A FROM GETS PUSHED TOWARDS THE FA EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A LONG DURATION
OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT THE DURATION LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ERC VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY. FAIR DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOME GOOD BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      33  69  42  72  50 /  00  00  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   38  67  46  71  54 /  00  00  00  05  10
DESTIN      41  64  49  68  55 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   28  69  36  73  47 /  00  00  00  05  10
WAYNESBORO  26  68  39  72  48 /  00  00  00  05  10
CAMDEN      31  69  37  72  46 /  00  00  00  05  10
CRESTVIEW   29  70  35  74  46 /  00  00  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...
     UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND
     SANTA ROSA...

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
518 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281030-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
518 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-281030-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
518 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.  NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.