Alert archive / Alabama / Flash Flood Watches in 2013
Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this flash flood watch at Aug 16, 2013, 9:03 AM CDT for Conecuh County, Covington County, Escambia County, Alabama. It took effect at Aug 16, 2013, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2013, 9:03 AM CDT (14:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 16, 2013, 7:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2013, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Escambia County, AL
The radar
The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 487 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
852 WGUS64 KMOB 161403 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 903 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA... .SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL WORK WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THESE AREAS IN A SHORT PERIOD...WITH INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR THE ACCUMULATED WATER TO DRAIN OFF. ALZ060-FLZ003>006-162215- /O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0009.130817T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ COVINGTON-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...JAY...PACE...MILTON... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB 903 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...COVINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME LOCALITIES MAY SEE 8 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
7 follow-up statements
165 WGUS64 KMOB 162045 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SHARPENS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT COULD ALSO NOSE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED FROM BACK IN JULY. THUS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALZ060-FLZ003>006-170445- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.130817T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ COVINGTON-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...JAY...PACE...MILTON... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... COVINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME LOCALITIES MAY SEE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
136 WGUS64 KMOB 170447 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SHARPENS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT COULD ALSO NOSE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED FROM BACK IN JULY. THUS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALZ060-FLZ003>006-171300- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ COVINGTON-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...JAY...PACE...MILTON... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB 1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... COVINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME LOCALITIES MAY SEE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
595 WGUS64 KMOB 170628 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 128 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND COASTAL ALABAMA... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SHARPENS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT COULD ALSO NOSE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED FROM BACK IN JULY. THUS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALZ056-059-062-064-FLZ001-002-171800- /O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA- COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...FOLEY... CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT... WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE 128 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA... CONECUH...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN AND UPPER BALDWIN. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA AND INLAND ESCAMBIA. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME LOCALITIES MAY SEE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ ALZ060-FLZ003>006-171800- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ COVINGTON-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...JAY...PACE...MILTON... GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH... NICEVILLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 128 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... COVINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME LOCALITIES MAY SEE 8 TO 10 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
884 WGUS64 KMOB 171804 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 104 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE MOBILE COUNTY AND IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SHARPENS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE INTERSECTS A STALLED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS...THAT THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THE EXISTING SATURATED SOILS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAIN SWOLLEN CREEK BEDS WILL ALSO LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID WATER FLOW. ALZ061-063-180200- /O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ UPPER MOBILE-LOWER MOBILE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE 104 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...LOWER MOBILE AND UPPER MOBILE. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOBILE COUNTY SINCE LAST NIGHT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE HEAVIER RAINS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ ALZ056-059-060-062-064-FLZ001>006-180200- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO... FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY... MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT... NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB 104 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...CONECUH...COVINGTON... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN AND UPPER BALDWIN. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DUAL POL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WATCH AREA. THIS AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA...NORTH AND EAST OF FLORALA ALABAMA TO ORANGE BEACH ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE HEAVIER RAINS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
170 WGUS64 KMOB 180151 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 851 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS WELL AS ALL OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SHARPENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER A STALLED FRONT THAT IS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS...THAT THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THE EXISTING SATURATED SOILS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAIN SWOLLEN CREEK BEDS WILL ALSO LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID WATER FLOW. ALZ056-059>064-FLZ001>006-181000- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN- LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA- INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA- COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY... PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB 851 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...CONECUH...COVINGTON... ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN AND UPPER MOBILE. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA... COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA... INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DUAL POL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND COASTAL ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE INSTANCES WHERE HEAVIER RAINS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
163 WGUS64 KMOB 180919 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 419 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON... .ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST...BUT WITH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOW EXPIRE AT 1 PM. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ESCAMBIA...CONECUH AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAIN SWOLLEN CREEK BEDS WILL ALSO LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID WATER FLOW. ALZ056-059-060-181030- /O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON... EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP 419 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-181730- /O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130818T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY... PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB 419 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN AND UPPER MOBILE. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON * PRECIPITATION GAUGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DUAL POL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND RESULTING IN A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
125 WGUS64 KMOB 181727 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING... .ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN SATURATED...WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES DURING THE PAST 48 TO 72 HOURS. WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS AND NOTED RISES IN LOCAL SMALL STREAMS AND CREEK BEDS. ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-190000- /O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-130819T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN- INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS... BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY... PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE... EGLIN AFB 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN AND UPPER MOBILE. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. * UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING * PRECIPITATION GAUGES...HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DUAL POLARIZATION STORM TOTAL RAINFALL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND RESULTING IN A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 16, 4:28 AM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 4:28 AM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST WATER VAPOR/IR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING EASTWARD...PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MOSTLY NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT 00Z GFS PHYSICAL SOLUTION THIS MORNING WITH THE MODEL DATA BREAKING THIS CIRCULATION OFF TO THE NORTH MOVING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REFORMING OVER MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA REMAINING MOSTLY ISOLATED WELL TO THE WEST OR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS INLAND SOUTHEAST MS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR INLAND...AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY NEAR THE COAST. DUE TO TRAINING CELLS IN THE THESE AREAS TO THE EAST SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS REASONING WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT AND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES MOSTLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK RATHER WEAK FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING OCCURRING OFFSHORE AND OVER EASTERN AREAS. AS A RESULT MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFO'S. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEANS TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES ABOUT 2 DEGREES MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND NEAR THE COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV OR MET GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. 32/EE THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROF ORIENTED ALONG THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO EXTEND WELL INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOST OF THE ENERGY EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROF WOULD TEND TO STEER THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH THE SYSTEM PROBABLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OR NORTHWEST GULF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WHETHER THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DISTURBANCE OR INTENSIFIES IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER UNKNOWN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REORGANIZE FURTHER NORTHWARD...WESTWARD OR DISSIPATE ALL OF WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW OR SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN. FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WEAKEN AS BOTH THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF WILL HAVE KEPT THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ORIENTED ROUGHLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR SATURDAY MORNING...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.3 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EARLIER AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES AND THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT THE BEST POPS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY THEN THIS PORTION AND SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST...QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN A CHALLENGING FORECAST AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. COULD SEE 72 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL...BUT THERE REMAINS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME WHICH IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29 .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EVOLVES. WHILE THE UPPER TROF PATTERN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...EXPECT INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA OR NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29 && .AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN LOW CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY TODAY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT EAST WIND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE && .MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER GULF AND SHIFT NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS UP TO 6 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASED WIND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND MOSTLY ELEVATED FROM BETTER SWELL SHIFTING NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GULF. 32/EE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 89 71 86 72 86 / 40 30 50 60 60 PENSACOLA 88 75 84 74 85 / 60 60 70 70 60 DESTIN 86 78 83 75 85 / 70 60 70 70 60 EVERGREEN 86 69 84 70 85 / 50 50 50 60 60 WAYNESBORO 89 68 87 70 85 / 30 20 30 50 50 CAMDEN 87 68 86 70 86 / 40 30 30 50 50 CRESTVIEW 88 71 84 70 85 / 60 60 70 60 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 16, 5:14 AM CDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171200- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP MOSTLY OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR INLAND...AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY RAIN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ULTIMATELY HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASED TIDAL RANGE AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE. GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-171200- NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 514 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAINS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ULTIMATELY HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT IMPACTS OVER THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. TIDES ABOVE NORMAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 6:31 AM CDT | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 89 min | |
| Aug 16, 2:46 PM CDT | Rip Current Statement | MOB | 3 days | |
| Aug 16, 5:02 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 88 min | |
| Aug 16, 8:11 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MOB | Okaloosa | 5 days |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Alabama, 2013Flash Flood Watches in Florida, 2013Every flash flood watch in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.