Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO. THE COASTAL AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IS OUTLOOKED
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA AS THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THE AERIAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE EXTENDED AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 8 TO 12 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL (LOCALLY HIGHER) CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THAT AREA
TODAY...WITH EVEN GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THAT
AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR). TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAV MOS NUMBERS. 12/DS

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE STRETCHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION SWINGS SLOWLY SE
(EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS IMPEDED BY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC)...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY HEAD NE WHILE
IT'S TRAINING FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. RAIN LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT TAPERS OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER
THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE...WITH THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE PART
OF THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE
USUAL 3 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPS IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
EXISTS..WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COLD SIDE AS IT IS THE QUICKEST TO
MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE CONTINUED TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SYSTEM...HAVE WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE GUIDANCE. FOR THE FORECAST...THIS MEANS A
NON-STANDARD APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN'T AS COLD AS ONE WOULD
SUSPECT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND TO
JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIRMASS AND A MILDLY
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE FA MEAN TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE-ERN CONUS GETS SOME HELP IN MOVING OFF
FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
DRYING OUT OVER THE FA CONTINUES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE N-RN GULF COAST. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...TO ABOVE SEASONAL FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN SWINGS
EAST. THIS PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
NEAR THE FA BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE.
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT SHRA WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TOWARDS THE FA. HAVE PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY NORTHERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA AFFECTED.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF WHITE STUFF
MIXING IN WITH THE SHRA LATE SATURDAY. WITH TEMPS WAY TOO WARM...SNOW
LOOKS HIGHLY IMPROBABLE UNLESS THE FRONT IS COLDER...FASTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT GETTING
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN. TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA TO AROUND
FREEZING SOUTH LIKELY. WITH AS WARM AS WE HAVE BEEN...THIS MAY CREATE
A PROBLEM FOR THOSE WHO HAVE HAD THEIR GREENERY OUTSIDE...AND WITH
LOCAL FLORA STARTING TO BLOOM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHRA ENDS. STILL LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM FOR THE WHITE
STUFF. CAN SEE IT IF THE PRECIP HANGS ON A BIT LONGER WITH THE AIR A
BIT COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH EVEN THEN...A FEW FLAKES FALLING
WITHT HE ENDING SHRA IS LIKELY. HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF WHITE STUFF
OUT OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE CHANCE TO INCONSISTENT AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PUSHES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EAST OF THE FA AND RESTORING
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED BY MONDAY. SOME
LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY AT THIS TIME TO AFFECT EVEN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS EAST OF THE FA...
PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE FA. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH
THE DRIVING SHORTWAVE...THUS IS ADVERTISING A WETTER AND COOLER
SOLUTION. WITH EITHER PLAUSIBLE...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12/12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...LOW CIGS RANGING FROM 400 TO 700
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10KT TONIGHT THEN
BEGIN TO VEER EAST BY 15Z TUE...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 12KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...MOVING EAST OF THE MARINE AREA BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...BUT WILL DECREASE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE MARINE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS
TODAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RETREAT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...THE TRIALING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...RESTORING
COOLER...DRIER NORTHWESTERLY AIRFLOW TO THE AIR. THE AIRMASS MOVING
OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OR DRIER...WITH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW DOES LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONGER FRONT MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  60  65  39  64 /  90  90  50  00  00
PENSACOLA   68  63  65  42  63 /  80  90  70  05  00
DESTIN      67  63  64  45  61 /  80  90  70  05  00
EVERGREEN   67  60  65  37  63 /  80  90  60  00  00
WAYNESBORO  64  55  61  36  63 / 100  70  30  00  00
CAMDEN      64  58  63  37  62 / 100  90  50  00  00
CRESTVIEW   71  66  67  37  65 /  80  90  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
350 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING TUESDAY.
OVER THE NEXT DAY...A GENERAL THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. THE RAIN
AREA WILL EXPAND IN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THEIR
BANKS.

AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. THE THREAT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF I-65 AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING ECHO SEGMENTS.
GIVEN A DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AREA RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE STEADY RISES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY RISING INTO THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
350 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE...AS A
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CREATING HIGHER SEAS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.