Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
924 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST U.S. COAST KEEPING
SURFACE RIDGING SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER FURTHER WEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEP AND
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE KXMR AND KTBW SOUNDINGS ARE RELATIVELY WARM AT AROUND -5.8C.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND A FEW BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT WILL
BE NORTH OF A KISSIMMEE-TITUSVILLE LINE. FURTHER SOUTH CHANCES DROP
OFF TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS LOCALLY 40 TO 50 MPH. MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

WRLY WINDS AND NO SEABREEZE WILL GENERATE MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES...NEAR 90F OVER THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WRLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT DECOUPLING...KEEPING MIN TEMPS IN THE M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AGAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL
FL DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. TAF SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4
WILL AGAIN GET AN EARLY SHOT AT CONVECTION PAST MID MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDS. SFC WND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS
POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
THREATS. BECMG VFR AREAWIDE AGAIN AFT AROUND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT
ALLOW FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WSW/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OFF OF THE
VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTS LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS 1-2 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1145 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-242115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1145 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...
SPARKING SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE STORMS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
20 MPH. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING...THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TO PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL FOCUS STORMS INLAND
WITH A REDUCTION IN OVERALL COVERAGE. WESTERLY STEERING WINDS
WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AROUND SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW/KELLY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

FLZ044-045-144-241730-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT.

AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER HOWEY IN THE
HILLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
INCLUDE...LAKE APOPKA...MOUNT DORA...APOPKA...ZELLWOOD.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

LAT...LON 2886 8178 2885 8142 2872 8145 2871 8146
      2867 8146 2850 8149 2871 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 308DEG 26KT 2872 8176

KELLY