Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE
AREA BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING ALONG THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY TO MARCH
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE LATEST RAP WAS SHOWING STEERING LEVEL
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. WITH THE LIMITED SOLAR INSOLATION...THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ONLY HAVE LIMITED INLAND MOVEMENT...MAINLY
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. STILL THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
MAY LINGER THROUGH EVENING SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN ALL ZONES.

MON-TUE...MID LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATEST GFS INDICATES SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEING ADVECTED
IN FROM THE GULF SO POPS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A LITTLE. HOWEVER
THE WESTERLY STEERING LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FAVOR POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
(40 PERCENT) EXCEPT 50 PERCENT IN THE NORTH WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHER (NORTH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS).

WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...THE
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY AND BY TUE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE INHIBITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH. THIS
SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS...THOUGH WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE LATEST
GFS WHICH HAS SOME 93-94 DEGREE HIGHS. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE IF SOME UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WED-SAT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RETREATS SEAWARD AS ITS WESTWARD EMANATING AXIS FULLY
ADJUSTS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR AS THE STRAITS.
THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES THRU
THE PERIOD. TROUGHING HANGS UP OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO KEEP WEATHER MORE DISTURBED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MINOR WAVES AND VORT MAXES MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING WORKS ITS WAY IN
FROM THE GULF FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO PROMPT POPS GREATER NORTH AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH LATER IN THE PERIOD. POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT
NORTH AREA EACH DAY. FOR SOUTH AREA...40 PERCENT DROPPING BACK TO
30-35 PERCENT BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATER DEVELOPING CONVECTION DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUDS BUT EXPECT
ACTIVITY ALONG WEST COAST BOUNDARY TO MARCH STEADILY ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...SO CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KMLB-KSUA WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.

SURFACE TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR STORMS MARCHING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AFTERNOON AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...NEAR 15 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED CANAVERAL
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
AND INTO MON MORNING. THE MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE WATERS
AND RESULT IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
MAINLAND TO SWEEP OFFSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AND STEERING
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY FRI WHICH MAY KEEP AFTERNOON
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE PENINSULA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  75  90 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  74  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  74  89  72  90 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  72  90  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  75  91  75  91 /  20  40  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  40  30  40
ORL  75  92  76  91 /  20  40  30  40
FPR  73  89  72  90 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

FORECASTS...RL
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...TES