Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
...WET PATTERN INTO MID WEEK BEFORE TURNING DRIER...

TODAY...RATHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AND A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WERE PROVIDING A DEEP...
MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE AGAIN TODAY.

THE LOCAL AREA WAS IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WAS
PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...WHICH
SOMETIMES PUTS THE KIBOSH ON HIGH POP DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHICH WILL
PRODUCE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE.  ALSO EXPECT AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH.  SO WITH THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN PLACE IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOST HEATED AREAS.

DO NOT SEE ANYTHING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT NEEDS UPDATING.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS
MORNING BENEATH RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. THINNING OUT OF THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN.  SOME WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER/FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.  A FEW CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE POOR
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND WILL MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE FOR ALL ZONES.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ANY SMALL CRAFT THAT HAVE
VENTURED INTO THE ATLANTIC OR INLAND WATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1117 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-012300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1117 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM
TODAY...HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
AREAS OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER THE AREA.

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG LATER TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD REMAIN AWARE THAT
STORMS MAY APPROACH RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTH. BE PREPARED TO MOVE
INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING WELL BEFORE STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW SPOTS AND ON ROADWAYS. A
QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN AN HOUR OR LESS AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE AN OFFSHORE MOVING CURRENT
THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TO ENHANCE THE
PULL OF ANY RIP CURRENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST BETWEEN 12:30 PM AND 7:00 PM DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. CHECK
WITH BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS AND ALWAYS SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
WHILE THE WINDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE... THEIR RAPID MOTION WILL GIVE THEM A MODERATE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES AS
WELL AS COASTAL WATERWAYS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
WHILE THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LIMIT WAVE GROWTH...IT ALSO
WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF
THE COAST. WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT OR BELOW 7 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE PREVAILING FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW/WEITLICH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
244 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S CAPE CANAVERAL      28.37N 80.60W
07/01/2013  M45 MPH          BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            WIND GUST FROM USAF WIND TOWER AT 24 FT.

&&

PG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

FLZ058-059-011930-
OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
250 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER EASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...WESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER FOUR SEASONS
ESTATES...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

LAT...LON 2717 8091 2719 8091 2723 8099 2729 8101
      2764 8087 2764 8078 2756 8078 2756 8054
      2720 8060 2720 8067 2716 8068 2716 8072
      2720 8080 2714 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 191DEG 26KT 2729 8072

SEDLOCK