Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY...

CURRENT...WEAK MEANDERING SURFACE TROUGH LIES JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA.
TO THE SOUTH....THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG A LINE FROM  JUPITER
INLET TO OKEECHOBEE WNW TO THE SARASOTA-RUSKIN AREA. SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE SRN THIRD CWA ARE SRLY...VEERING TO SSW AND SW OVER THE
CTRL AND NRN COS. MORNING RAOBS SHOW 1.7" OF MEAN PWAT...SFC-H85 LYR
OVER EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA IS A TAD DRIER THAN THE WEST SIDE
WHILE WRN FLORIDA IS DRIER ABOVE H70. BOTH THE CIRA COMBINED TPW
(COURTESY OF UAH-NASA/SPORT) AND GPS IPW PRODUCTS INDICATE A SMALL
POCKET OF LOWER PWAT AIR (1.25 TO 1.5") NORTH OF I-4. H50 TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -8C...AT THE COOL END OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID-LATE JUNE.
SKIES ARE SUNNY-MOSUNNY WITH DIURNAL CU FIELD JUST STARTING TO SHOW
UP ON VIS IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXPECT EVOLUTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO WED...ALBEIT PERHAPS SHIFTED INLAND EVER SO
SLIGHTLY OVER THE CTRL AND SRN CWA AS FLOW IS A BIT MORE BACKED
THERE TODAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY
ALONG BOUNDARY AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS. OVERALL...HAVE NO
PROBLEM WITH POP NUMBERS FOR TODAY...SO DON'T FORESEE NEED FOR AN
UPDATE TO THE ZFP.

&&

.AVIATION...(PREV) EXPECT MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS AND KDAB DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. COULD SEE SOME EARLY ACTIVITY SIMILAR
TO WED VRB-FPR-SUA ALONG ECSB 17Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY AND C-MAN DATA SHOW SSW-SW SURFACE WINDS OF
10-12KT WITH A BACKGROUND SWELL AROUND 2FT/9-10SEC. IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE WNAWAVE IS
OVERDOING WIND CHOP CONTRIBUTION TO COMBINED SEAS IN AN OFFSHORE
FLOW REGIME...SHOWING A GOOD 2FT/4SEC (PERHAPS 2-3FT IN THE SWAN)
CHOP WHEN IN REALITY ITS ONLY RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT. PERHAPS THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE MODELS INSISTENCE ON COMBINED SEAS OF 4-5FT
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WHEN THEY'VE BEEN RUNNING
2-3FT. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS APPEARS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT EITHER THE PGRAD WOULD NEED TO TIGHTEN
OR ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY WOULD HAVE TO MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS FOR 5FT SEAS TO BE REALIZED FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1209 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1209 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE INTERACTING OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE PREVAILING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDFLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG AN AREA THAT SHOULD STRETCH FROM NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY TO
EASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES. A LINGERING STORM OR TWO OVER THE INTERIOR MAY LAST
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED TEMPORARY FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FLOODING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED UNTIL THE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS CATCH UP
TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO TO THREE INCHES
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER
ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES AND INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH
UNTIL OUT OF THE PULL OF THE CURRENT...AND THEN SWIM BACK TO
SHORE. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

VOLKMER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
138 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MELBOURNE               28.08N 80.61W
06/20/2013                   BREVARD            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS NEAR
            THE MELBOURNE CAUSEWAY.

&&

JRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
244 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

FLZ147-201930-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
244 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

AT 244 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
TITUSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

LAT...LON 2861 8077 2862 8079 2861 8080 2855 8079
      2856 8093 2859 8094 2861 8097 2874 8097
      2873 8083 2866 8082 2866 8079 2869 8079
      2870 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 324DEG 7KT 2860 8084

JP