Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE THAT STIRRED UP STORMS ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAIN INITIATOR FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS THEY MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SUPPRESSION BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT NORTH OF ORLANDO TODAY. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. 12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE HIGHER
PW VALUES THAN YESTERDAY AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 30/40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH 20 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ANY
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ANY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WEITLICH/KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-192300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
COPIOUS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR TWO...CAUSING TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
SOME ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. LOCAL AFFECTS MAY BE ENHANCED DURING TIMES
OF OUTGOING TIDE. CHECK WITH BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS
BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 35 KNOTS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG
WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE THREAT WILL LINGER FOR THE LARGER
INLAND LAKES MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST AT THE
BEACHES EARLY THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

KELLY/PENDERGRAST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FLZ045-053-192000-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM ORLANDO TO OVER BUENA
VENTURA LAKES TO KISSIMMEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS OR CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

LAT...LON 2859 8157 2860 8136 2821 8119 2800 8132
      2799 8142 2805 8147 2806 8144 2802 8138
      2806 8137 2808 8135 2808 8145 2814 8146
      2814 8153 2820 8153 2825 8156 2826 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 323DEG 9KT 2835 8134

KELLY