Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH EVENING...
...SOME DRYING/SLIGHT COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS ALLOWING FOR MORE POP UP CELLS ELSEWHERE.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION ON THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO IN THE SHORT TERM...DAYTIME
HEATING CONVECTION WILL HAVE MORE COVERAGE. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG CELLS WHERE THE BEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

MEANWHILE...AN MCS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE
GULF. EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS IT TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS DIMINISHED PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM 18Z-24Z...
INDICATING A WEAKENING MCS...BUT THE LOCAL WRF MODEL KEEPS
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. MOS POPS ARE 20-30 PERCENT BUT WILL
GO WITH POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS.

SUNDAY...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER STARTING OFF
AROUND 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THE RESULTANT MOS POPS TOP OUT AROUND 35 PERCENT. THIS MAY BE DUE
TO SOME SUPPRESSION BEHIND MCV FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...
WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS 40-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES.

SUN NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. INITIAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AND WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH HIGHER POPS ARE LIKELY EARLIER IN THE EVENING...A
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THROUGH THE
AREA WHICH WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

MON-FRI...PREVIOUS...COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN FLORIDA
TYPICALLY BRING DRIER AIR AS THIS ONE WILL...BUT IT IS UNUSUAL FOR
THEM TO BRING COOLER AIR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE MODIFIED BY THE ATLANTIC AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHEAST BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST MON-TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
THE CAROLINA COAST. BY THU...HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLC AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS...AS WELL AS A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO ADD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS MOVING WELL INLAND AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE DOMINANT
WESTERLY FLOW...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS HELD CLOSE TO THE
COAST. IF IT MOVES INLAND FAR ENOUGH...THE COLLISION WITH THE WEST
COAST BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE STRONG STORMS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...
MAINLY KTIX SOUTHWARD TO KSUA. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SECOND SHOT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEHIND THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST NEAR 40 KNOTS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO SOME QUICK FLUCTUATIONS IN THE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT MIGHT NOT
TELL THE WHOLE STORY AS TO THE MARINE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE PERIODS OF THEM. ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW SHOULD
EASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH
INITIAL SW/W WINDS VEERING TO NW OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING.
SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING CELLS IN THE EVENING WITH SOME ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3 FT OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

MON-THU...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY MON...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF OUR WATERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...BECOMING 15-20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.
THESE SPEEDS MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING ESP THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS. SWAN MODEL DEPICTS SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM LATE MON INTO TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATER ON TUE
SHOULD CAUSE THE WINDS TO EASE A LITTLE ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON WED AND PROVIDE EASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH AND AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MON-WED...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE LATEST FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST LOW RH'S IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR MON AFTERNOON...UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT SAME AREAS
TUE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY TUE AND EAST ON
WED...SLOWLY MODIFYING THE AIR MASS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BE BREEZY
TO AROUND 15 MPH THOSE DAYS TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  65  81 /  30  50  30  10
MCO  69  88  66  84 /  30  50  30  10
MLB  69  89  69  83 /  30  50  30  20
VRB  70  89  69  83 /  30  40  20  20
LEE  69  88  65  82 /  30  50  30  10
SFB  69  89  67  84 /  30  50  30  10
ORL  70  88  68  83 /  30  50  30  10
FPR  70  89  69  83 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-112200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
450 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE TODAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
AND MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...EVENTUALLY
COLLIDING WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL BE PINNED NEAR
THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. STRONGER STORMS WILL RESULT FROM ANY
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
LINGERING OCEAN SWELLS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROL
ON LATEST SURF CONDITIONS AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS TOMORROW WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WEITLICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

FLZ045-112045-
ORANGE-
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY FROM VINELAND TO 6
MILES EAST OF LAKE NONA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2855 8094 2854 8094 2850 8088 2847 8087
      2847 8089 2845 8090 2845 8089 2843 8090
      2841 8088 2839 8089 2835 8086 2835 8141
      2843 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 261DEG 14KT 2840 8115

BOWEN