Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
MUCH HIGHER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
WED. SW FLOW HAS BACKED AND WEAKENED SOME AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CWA...AND AS A RESULT THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATER/LANDSPOUTS ALONG MESO BOUNDARIES TODAY (TWO REPORTS HAVE COME
INTO THE OFFICE ALREADY) MADE EARLY ZFP ISSUANCE WITH PRE-FIRST PD.

FRI-SUN...SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS WITH SLIGHT EROSION IN
H50 HEIGHTS AS E-SE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DEEPENS BY
THIS WEEKEND. MEAN PWATS REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE NWRN CWA
FRIDAY FROM THE OLD SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH FAVORS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS THERE. EVEN AFTER THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH/WANES LATE FRIDAY...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW AROUND PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE BAHAMAS AND INTO CTRL-SRN FL...
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL CONVG INTO THE AREA. NUDGED
POPS UP TO 60 SAT AND 40-50 SUN. MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S  INLAND AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 70S...PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST DUE TO SELY ONSHORE FLOW.

MON-THU...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SE AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP EC FL IN A GENERAL
SE FLOW. INFLUENCE OF RIDGE ALOFT MAY ACT TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A
TAD AND DECREASE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL IN THE 30/40 PERCENT RANGE.
HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MADE SEVERAL AMDS TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS WHERE THEY
WEREN'T ALREADY IN PLACE. OTRW...TIMING OF ONSET OF TS IS PRETTY
MUCH AS ADVERTISED IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
VRB20G30KT EXPECTED IN INTENSE CELLS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
IN AND AROUND LOCAL AERODROMES THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...SE WINDS OF 10-15KT FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
FULLY EXPECT TO HAVE TO SHAVE AT LEAST A FOOT OFF OF LOCAL SWAN MODEL
COMBINED SEA HGTS ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WITH WINDS BACKING TO ONSHORE
WE STAND A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4FT
WELL OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
MCO  73  92  73  92 /  30  50  30  60
MLB  75  89  77  87 /  30  40  20  60
VRB  74  89  76  87 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  74  92  73  92 /  30  60  30  60
SFB  74  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  60
ORL  75  92  74  91 /  30  50  30  60
FPR  73  88  76  88 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....WIMMER