Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Melbourne, FL

199 
WHUS72 KMLB 100724
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

AMZ570-572-575-101400-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-131010T1400Z/
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
324 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET
  OFFSHORE AND IN THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
  TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MAIN FIRST PERIOD CONCERN WILL BE EARLY
EVENING CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP. MESO/GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SWEEPING DRIER AIR SWD OVERNIGHT...
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA IS BOTH THINNING AND ERODING FROM THE BACK.
SO...THINK IT'S A GOOD BET THAT MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SCRAPS OF MARINE SC NEAR THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS. NRLY FLOW WILL ALSO SPELL COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW MINS TO DROP INTO THE 60S FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY BREVARD SWD.

THU-NEXT WED...BLOCKY WX PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CONUS/WRN
ATLC AS QSTNRY SURFACE AND H50 LOWS MEANDERING OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY OPENING UP AND DRIFTING SEAWARD NEXT TUE-WED.
NRLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN THU-SAT BEFORE A REINFORCING NERLY SURGE
DROPS SWD DOWN THE SERN SEABOARD AND WRN ATLC SUN-MON. MAX TEMPS
M80S INTERIOR/TREASURE COAST AND L80S COASTAL VOLUSIA/BREVARD.
COOLER MINS L-M60S AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE
BEACHSIDE AREAS OF THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. VERY LOW SHOWER
THREAT BY WED AS AIR MASS MOISTENING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CIGS BKN025-035...LCLY OVC.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND BECOME CLEAR OR NEARLY SO FOR ALL
AERODROMES BY 02Z-04Z IF NOT BEFORE.

&&

.MARINE...THU-MON (PREV MODIFIED)...NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE PENINSULA REMAINS BETWEEN THE
MEANDERING LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO SUPPORT WINDS 15-20KTS...WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BACK TO
10-15KTS BY EARLY SUN AS THE LOW WEAKENS...BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
AGAIN LATE SUN-MON AS ANOTHER NE SURGE DROPS SWD DOWN THE ATLC.
MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO CURRENT SCA...DROPPING IT WITHIN 20NM
BUT EXTENDING IT FROM SEBASTIAN TO JUPITER INLETS BEYOND 20NM...AS
SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AND QUITE CHOPPY IN THE GULF STREAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  82  64  84 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  66  86  65  86 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  69  83  67  83 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  70  85  67  84 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  65  86  64  86 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  66  85  66  86 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  68  85  67  86 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  70  84  67  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1248 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-100500-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1248 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE A STRONG SOUTHWARD FLOWING
LONG SHORE CURRENT ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL POSE A HAZARD TO BEACH GOERS. THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT THREAT AS WELL AS ROUGH SURF DEVELOPS ALONG THE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE GENERATED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL GENERATE 7 TO 9 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

BRAGAW