Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Melbourne, FL

528 
WWUS52 KMLB 142218
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLC069-095-117-127-142245-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130414T2245Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-LAKE-VOLUSIA-
618 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN VOLUSIA...EAST CENTRAL LAKE...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE AND
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEKIVA SPRINGS...OR NEAR ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FERN
PARK...WEKIWA SPRINGS STATE PARK...ROCK SPRINGS...LONGWOOD...LAKE 
MARY...SANFORD...ORANGE CITY...MIDWAY...LAKE MONROE...HONTOON ISLAND 
STATE PARK...ENTERPRISE...DELTONA...DEBARY...CASSIA...CASSADAGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO DETECTED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL
DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.


&&

LAT...LON 2906 8138 2891 8112 2849 8148 2859 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 212DEG 18KT 2869 8143

$$


KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/MON...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN CWA INVOF
WARM FRONT AS POOLING OF MEAN PWAT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
LINGER OVER THAT AREA BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO MONITOR FOR STRATUS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS MOS SUGGESTS LOW CEILINGS AND PERHAPS
SOME SHALLOW FOG. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD OFFSHORE THE SERN US
COAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN SPITE
OF THE LOWER MAV NUMBERS...SUFFICIENT PWAT VALUES REMAIN TO WARRANT
SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY MON AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD FORM AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND EXTRA FORCING WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
WARM TEMPS MON AFTERNOON RANGING FROM L-M80S ALONG THE COAST TO U80S
INLAND WITH AND SOME L90S NEAR THE KISM RIVER.

TUE-THU (PREV)...AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING A VERY SUMMERESQUE PATTERN. WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MORE NE TUE AND SE BY THU BUT
EACH DAY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND
INLAND PROPAGATION. RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE MAINLY FORCED BY THE
SEA BREEZE WITH POPS DECLINING A BIT EACH DAY AS OVERALL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA DECREASES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE INLAND BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY LIGHT COVERAGE.

FRI-SUN (PREV)...FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN THE SAME PATTERN AS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND MEAGER BUT
PRESENT MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. FLOW VEERS SOUTH AND THEN SW LATE
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND ECM HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH BOTH SHOWING THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS
KEEPS RAIN COVERAGE FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE ECM SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
GFS AT THIS POINT AND ADDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR NORTH/INLAND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SCT-NMRS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA AND SCT IFR VSBYS/CIGS
IN +RA/TS. THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING THEREAFTER.
SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/MON...LINGERING TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN MONDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS
RANGING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES MOSTLY INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SEAS DECREASING TO 1-3 FT.

TUE-FRI (PREV)...WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-15KT OUT OF THE ESE TO SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 15KT WITH
THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET
INCREASING TO 3-4FT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER UNTIL
LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  83  67  82 /  50  30  10  10
MCO  69  88  69  88 /  40  30  10  20
MLB  69  85  69  85 /  30  30  10  10
VRB  69  85  69  84 /  30  30  10  10
LEE  69  87  69  87 /  50  30  10  20
SFB  70  88  69  88 /  50  30  10  20
ORL  70  88  70  88 /  40  30  10  20
FPR  70  84  70  85 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....MOSES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1233 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-142300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1233 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS AMPLE MOISTURE IN
ADDITION WITH LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ENERGY ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED
TO EXTENSIVE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF A CAPE CANAVERAL TO KISSIMMEE LINE AND IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ORLANDO METRO SOUTHWARDS ACROSS OSCEOLA...BREVARD...AND INDIAN
RIVER COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 45 MPH IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND
SMALL HAIL. WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS
LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND NUISANCE
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE STORM CELLS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS ORLANDO METRO SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS OSCEOLA...BREVARD...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LINGERING EAST SWELL WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT THREAT AT LOW TO
MODERATE. CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS AND
ONLY SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS. A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO MID-WEEK DUE TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

MOSES/SEDLOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WSW PATRICK AIRFORCE  28.22N 80.68W
04/14/2013  M3.45 INCH       BREVARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER IN THE SUNTREE AREA OF BREVARD COUNTY REPORTED
            3.45 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN 1230 AND 230 PM THIS
            AFTERNOON.

&&

ULRICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
334 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLZ041-046-141-147-142030-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-SEMINOLE-
334 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY...EASTERN
SEMINOLE COUNTY...EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER LAKE
HARNEY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE OSTEEN...INTERSTATE 95...AND MAYTOWN.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2922 8099 2908 8093 2907 8090 2884 8075
      2881 8077 2885 8078 2885 8081 2879 8078
      2876 8081 2877 8084 2872 8083 2862 8089
      2865 8127 2927 8131 2927 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 176DEG 9KT 2872 8107

MOSES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLZ041-044-141-142215-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
440 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...NORTHERN
VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

IN ADDITION TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME
ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING AND
LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2908 8093 2907 8090 2905 8090 2898 8166
      2905 8166 2905 8164 2928 8165 2932 8168
      2938 8145 2940 8143 2940 8142 2927 8141
      2927 8116 2941 8116 2943 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 164DEG 15KT 2915 8113

MOSES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
508 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLZ044>046-144-142230-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
508 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER LAKE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY...WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MASCOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED OVER ROCK SPRINGS AND
PLYMOUTH AND SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN ORLANDO METRO INTO PINE
HILLS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2896 8196 2897 8195 2896 8166 2899 8166
      2901 8138 2898 8135 2896 8137 2895 8135
      2889 8135 2888 8137 2884 8135 2856 8134
      2851 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 216DEG 19KT 2862 8196

MOSES