Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Melbourne, FL

388 
WWUS82 KMLB 300029
RFWMLB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
829 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

FLZ045-046-310000-
/O.EXP.KMLB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130330T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.FW.W.0016.130330T1500Z-130331T0000Z/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
829 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH ERC VALUES FOR ORANGE
AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA... ORANGE... SEMINOLE.

* WIND...LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST 5 TO 10
  MPH BY MID DAY THEN SOUTHEAST AT THE SAME SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...LONG DURATION (6 TO 8 HOURS) OF CRITICALLY LOW
  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20
  PERCENT WITH ERC VALUES IN THE LOWER 40S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY 
  DUETO THE DRY CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DURING
THE EVENING THEN MORE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM LATE EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LAND BREEZES ALONG THE COAST LATE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW...10 PLUS DEGREES...THEIR
NORMAL MID AND UPPER 50S WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S...SOME AROUND 50 AT THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST/BEACHES. THE
GOOD NEWS THO IS THAT THESE ARE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOWS.

BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS TO FORM AND DECOUPLE THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH FLORIDA. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FALL TO 5 MPH OR LESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A BIT WARMER
TONIGHT THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER/SHELTERED INTERIOR
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S. LOWER 50S LIKELY TO BE FOUND
ACROSS BARRIER ISLANDS AND ACROSS COASTAL ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES. NO RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE THE RULE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THIS DAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH EXCEPT SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE IT WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL WELL
BELOW 10 PERCENT AS THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB SLOWLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT
UPPER 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY COAST.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NORTH/SOUTH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PROVIDING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW...THE RIDGE
ORIENTATION WILL TRANSITION TO ONE MORE TYPICAL FOR THESE
LATITUDES...EAST/WEST WITH AN AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WITH THE COOLNESS AND DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM MOS VALUES...BUT
STILL READINGS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN THE RECENT RECORD SETTING
COLD. FRI NIGHT SHOULD HAVE MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S WITH A
FEW COLDER POCKET MID 40S...THEN WARM SAT INTO THE MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST AND UPPER 70S INLAND. SAT NIGHT LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO...IN THE MID 50S.

DO NOT SEE MUCH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME
CIRRUS LATE SAT INTO EARLY EASTER MORNING. RIDGE POSITION IS
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT NIGHT BUT THE OVERALL
DRYNESS OF LATE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
SUN-WED...
RIDGE AXIS WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACRS THE NRN BAHAMAS/GOMEX BY DAYBREAK
SUN AS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WEAKENS AND THE NRN BRANCH
BECOMES DOMINANT. THERE...IT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FL THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/SWRLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M80S...MIN TEMPS
INTO THE L/M60S.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DVLP OUT
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL/WRN CANADA. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM WOULD BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE SE CONUS...NEITHER
MODEL INDICATES THE CIRCULATION CENTER DIPPING MUCH BLOW THE
USA/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER NRN JET
BRANCH.

GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE STORM CORE SO FAR N...
PROSPECTS FOR A QUICK FROPA WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE LOW.
INDEED...MEX MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24HRS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
BACKED OFF THE PRECIP FCST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATING DRY WX
SUN AND ONLY A SLGT CHC MON-TUE.

EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT DURING THE PEAK OF THE DRY SEASON...
FORECASTING A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP FOR MULTIPLE PDS BEYOND DAY 3 IS A
LOT LIKE CHASING A RETREATING MIRAGE. FURTHERMORE...WITH A LIFTING
JET STREAM PATTERN ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SE...ANY STORM POTENTIAL
WOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND REMOVE PRECIP
FROM THE FCST THRU TUE. BY WED...THE PROLONGED SRLY FLOW WILL PULL
SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE UP FROM THE CARIB AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE SE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN CENTRAL FL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...AREA BUOYS RECORDING NORTHERLY WINDS AT 12 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THEY SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...NW/N FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS...EXCEPT AROUND 15 KTS
OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS TRAJECTORY STILL OPPOSES THE NORTHWARD
FLOWING GULF STREAM AND MAY PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 5 FT. WILL CONTINUE
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN THE GULF STREAM INTO THIS EVENING.

FRI...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND N/NE WINDS FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS 8-10 SECONDS. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

WEEKEND...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE 10 KNOT OR
LESS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST/EAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE NEARBY ON SUNDAY BUT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT A LITTLE...WITH
GENERALLY A 10-15 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

MON-TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERN PORTION SLOWING...POSSIBLY REACHING NORTH
FLORIDA ON TUE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
SAG SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TUE
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING COUNTIES HAD DURATIONS OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND HIGH ENOUGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES TO
VERIFY THE WARNING FOR TODAY. OTHER COUNTIES HAD DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH ERC VALUES.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FRI...ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OVER THE INTERIOR.
SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES...KEEPING 20 FOOT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH. EVEN WITH THE
ONSHORE DEVELOPING FLOW AREAS NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL NOT KEEP INLAND AREAS FROM CRASHING IN THE AFTERNOON
REGARDING RHS. WHEN THE ERC NUMBERS COME IN LATER TODAY...SUSPECT
THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND FLOW. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
BUT ON SAT MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. BY
SUNDAY MIN RH IS FORECAST TO BE 35 PERCENT OR HIGHER. WINDS SHOULD
BE 10 MPH OR LESS EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE KICKS UP TO 15 MPH.

MON-TUE...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO GREAT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST SO POPS LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES. MIN RH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  70  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  48  71  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  74  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  47  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
549 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-282100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
549 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. IF
ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF...SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR NORTH
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH STEEP WAVES AND CHOPPY SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL ALLOW
FIRES TO START EASILY FROM ANY CAUSE AND CAPABLE OF SPREADING
RAPIDLY. ALL OPEN FIRES AND WASTE BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. A BURN
BAN MAY BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. A HIGH TO VERY HIGH THREAT FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD CONTINUES FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

FLZ064-291130-
MARTIN-
153 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ...
SMOKE/FOG CREATING VERY LOW VISIBILITY IN SW MARTIN COUNTY

REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM STATE OFFICIALS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY ALONG STATE ROAD 76 BETWEEN INDIANTOWN AND PORT
MAYACA DUE TO A SMOKE/FOG COMBINATION RESULTING FROM A CONTROL BURN.
DRIVERS SHOULD EXPECT ROAD CLOSURES THROUGH SUNRISE.  USE EXTREME
CAUTION IF DRIVING IN THIS AREA...VISIBILITY CAN DROP DRAMATICALLY
WITHIN SECONDS AT NORMAL VEHICLE SPEEDS.

BRAGAW