Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL
INTERACT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GOMEX/BAHAMA
CHAIN TO KEEP CENTRAL FL UNDER A WET WX REGIME. CONVERGENCE ZONE
BETWEEN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE S HALF OF FL
WHILE THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO NOSE ITS WAY SWD. DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE...ALONG WITH GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WITH THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM POSITIONED OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
EXTENDING BACK TO THE W GULF COAST S OF THE RIO GRANDE.

FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ON THE ASCENDING SIDE OF A LOW/MID LVL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NE GOMEX. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW
WILL ROTATE AROUND ITS SE FLANK AND INTO THE CENTRAL FL...
MAINTAINING STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS. TIMING OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE LARGELY DICTATED BY MID LVL
ENERGY IMPULSES THAT WORK THEIR WAY ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.
FCSTING THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THESE IMPULSES IS TRICKY AT
BEST...EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM. NO AREA APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORED
THAN ANY OTHER OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL
COUNTIES...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY FRI FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A A POCKET OF DRIER MID LVL AIR ABOUT HALFWAY
BTWN APPALACHICOLA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...CONFIRMED BY
DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP W/SW FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE...THIS DRY AIR
MAY WORK ITS WAY ACRS S FL ON FRI. DOUBT IT WILL REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES BY MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IT MAY MAKE THE SRN COUNTIES MORE
PRONE TO STRONGER CONVECTION AS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN ABV
70PCT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT M/U60S...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY U70S/L80S.

(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
SAT...WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE
EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS KIND OF SETUP OFTEN
RESULTS IN A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COAST.

GFS GUID SHOWS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOCUSING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WILL KEEP 50 PERCENT CVRG DURING THIS
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A LIKELY MENTION ALONG THE COAST FRI NIGHT AND
THE NORTH COAST SAT.

SUN...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT TRAVERSED THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE IS SHOWN WEAKENING AND SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE GFS GRADUALLY ADVECTS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30 PERCENT FOR THE
NORTH COAST.

MON-THU...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THU. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW...BUT MOS HOLDS ON TO POPS NEAR
20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON MON...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THAT DAY. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS TO BE AN INCH
OR LESS...SO WILL NOT MENTION RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODEL DOES
SHOW ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AND GENERATES LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EACH DAY. ALONG WITH THE DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES AND SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 03/12Z...WDSPRD -RA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ALL SITES...NE SFC WNDS
ALONG THE COAST FM KMLB NWD WITH OCNL SFC G22KTS...E/SE WINDS
INTERIOR SITES/COASTAL SITES S OF KMLB...BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ALONG THE COAST AFT 03/06Z. AFT 03/12Z...WDSPRD -RA CONTG N OF
KVRB-KGIF...NMRS SHRAS/SCT TSRAS S OF KVRB-KGIF...WINDS BCMG E/NE
ALL SITES WITH OCNL SFC G22KTS ALONG THE COAST N OF KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...NE WINDS AOA 20KTS HAVE REACHED BUOY009...15-20KT
WINDS AT THE C-MAN STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT, GRAND BAHAMA...WHILE
NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS INDICATE 5FT SEAS ENCROACHING THE E FL
COAST. TIGHT PGRAD WILL PERSIST ACRS THE GOMEX/SW ATLC THRU DAYBREAK
FRI AS A WEAK SFC LOW SPINS UP OVER S FL AND INTERACTS WITH A STRONG
CONTINENTAL RIDGE ERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC WILL SEE A WIDE SPREAD: IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE (ROUGHLY FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET SWD)...WHILE NORTH OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL FRESHEN
OUT OF THE E/NE TO 20-25KTS NEARSHORE...UP TO 30KTS OFFSHORE.

A NERLY SFC FETCH OVER THE W ATLC CAN BE TRACED FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS
ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...EVEN IF SFC WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST DO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SWELL ENERGY WILL PUSH
SEAS ABV THE 5-7FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK FRI. CAN SEE NO POINT IN
DELAYING THE INEVITABLE...WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL
AREAS WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE.

SAT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE QUITE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN...FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD START
TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PUSH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
GRADUALLY SEAWARD.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

MON...A WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST 10-15 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  75  66  78 /  80  80  60  60
MCO  65  81  66  84 /  80  80  50  50
MLB  68  79  68  84 /  80  80  60  50
VRB  67  80  68  82 /  80  80  60  50
LEE  66  81  65  82 /  80  80  50  50
SFB  66  80  66  84 /  80  80  50  50
ORL  65  81  67  84 /  80  80  50  50
FPR  68  80  66  84 /  80  70  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

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