Small Craft Advisory 92, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA RADARS SHOWING ELONGATED AREA OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY FROM
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB TO 700MB
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. AIR BELOW
10000 FEET IS DRY...SO JUST SOME SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

RAP/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE AIR COLUMN NEARLY
SATURATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. ALL
SYNOPTIC MODELS EXCEPT THE NAM GIVE LIGHT QPF TO THE AREA BETWEEN
02Z AND 10Z SATURDAY.

HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. KEPT MAINLY SCATTERED POPS GOING FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT.
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS SOME...IF AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED
WITH THE STRONG LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WITHIN
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
TONIGHT OR RISE A BIT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WEST NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...REMAINING GUSTY WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SHORT WAVE...DEPARTING TO THE EAST FROM
NRN WISCONSIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BRINGS 925 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -1C TO -3C BY 12Z SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS STAY IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
THE MIXING HELPING TO HOLD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

QUIET...SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH WINDS EASING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH NOSES INTO THE STATE...THEN DROPS
SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN BY 00Z MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 40S WITH SLIGHTLY MODERATING 925MB
TEMPERATURES THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES NOT
KICK IN FULLY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH
LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN HOLD
STEADY IN THE NW WHILE REACHING THE MID-40S SOUTHEAST EARLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS THE
ARCTIC-ORIGIN AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. BETTER OMEGA
POST-FRONTAL WITH SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 900 MB AND 850 MB THAT MAY
LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO JUST SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A COLD QUIET WEEK UNDER NNW UPPER FLOW THAT ALLOWS A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. LOWS IN THE LOW 20S AND TEENS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY REACH THE LOWER 40S AS FLOW TURNS
MORE WESTERLY.

MID RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TO WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND
THAT BRINGS MID 40S HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK IN NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...REMAINING GUSTY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT
MADISON...AND TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AT THE EASTERN
SITES...WITH 1000 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY SPEED SHEAR...AS THE DIRECTION WILL BE NEARLY
THE SAME AS AT GROUND LEVEL.

MAY SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCUR BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. LEFT VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING FROM 00Z TO 12Z
SATURDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE PASSING LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THIS
EVENING...VEERING SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...THEN WEST NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT TOWARD OR OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATER ON SATURDAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM

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