Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

.VERY SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND
SEVERE RISK WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF 4KM WITH LAPS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN FALLING APART AS THEY SHIFT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 05Z TUESDAY.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WITH ITS PROGRESSION.

SOME QUESTION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...AS UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WITH FRONT OVER THE AREA IS MODEST COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST. STILL...ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION WITH FRONT AND PASSING
MODEST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...ENDING
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BRING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
MAINLY MULTICELL TYPE STRUCTURES. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A FOND DU LAC TO
MADISON TO DARLINGTON LINE. THIS IS WHERE THE SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI FOR
TUE NT AND WED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A TIME WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT MOST...A FEW
SPRINKLES TOWARD CENTRAL WI. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES FOR WED NT AND THU WHILE A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO NW WI
ON THU. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SEWD
INTO SRN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO CANADA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE WED NT AND THU. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON WED AND UPPER 70S TO 80F FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE NRN GRTLKS AND
CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE WEEKEND. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FOR FRI AND SAT. VERY PLEASANT AND DRY
SUMMER WX TO PREVAIL AFTERWARD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF SITES. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER
DURING THIS TIME. LAKE BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA BY 21Z TO 22Z MONDAY. MADISON SHOULD SEE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. A FEW MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WITH BETTER CHANCE AT MADISON...LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THE
EASTERN SITES. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE WAVES TO BECOME HIGH...WITH ONSHORE FLOW AT TIMES. THE
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH WEAKER
WINDS. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING

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