Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT SURE IF
CUMULUS OUT THERE WILL SCATTER OUT MORE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST...OR FILL BACK IN TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK. SOUNDS ARE
GENERALLY PRETTY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT QUITE A BIT
OF SUN OUT THERE RIGHT NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. LESS UNCERTAINTY LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES AND LOW CLOUDS FILL
BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA. BANKING ON CLOUDY SKIES FILLING IN ACROSS
THE AREA...SO SHOULD SEE LOWS A BIT MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

MORE RAIN WITH MAYBE A LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SIMILAR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS FELL EARLIER TODAY. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT RAIN EVENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING OVER AN
INCH. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 40S MOST PLACES TOMORROW...MAYBE
CRACKING THE LOW 50S TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE LAKE...NOT A
VERY PLEASANT DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

A CONSENSUS OF MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG STATIONARY FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN IA...NRN IL...INTO NRN IN WITH A SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG IT FOR WED AND THU. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN SOME WED NT
AS THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. PWS
WILL BE OVER ONE INCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE SHOWALTER
GRADIENT OVER SRN WI AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS OVER FAR SRN WI AND NRN
IL. THUS WILL FORECAST SCT TSTORMS IN THE SRN CWA WITH ISOLATED IN
THE NRN CWA. OVERALL WILL SEE ROUNDS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS...AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAINFALL
FROM TUE NT INTO THU AM. THE DRY SLOT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FOR THU AFT BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING LGT SNOW FOR THU NT THAT MAY LINGER INTO FRI.
TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGE FROM 2.25-3.00 INCHES. THIS WILL PUT MOST
RIVERS INTO BANKFULL AND MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH SOME REACHING MDT
FLOOD STAGE. PORTIONS OF THE ROCK RIVER...AND FOX RIVER IN SE
WI...ARE THE LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR MDT RIVER FLOODING. IF
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS OCCUR...THEN MANY MORE RIVERS WILL
REACH MDT FLOOD STAGE OR WORSE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AM.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY COOL DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO BRISK NELY
WINDS. WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SEE A SLOW TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THU
AND THU NT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL FRI NT AND SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
COOL TEMPS. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
NRN GREAT LAKES FROM SAT NT THROUGH MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLY
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BUT ALSO CHANCES OF LGT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE NORTHEAST. A BIT OF A QUESTION
MARK WITH CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT SURE IF CUMULUS OUT
THERE WILL SCATTER OUT MORE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...OR FILL
BACK IN TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK. LESS UNCERTAINTY LATER TONIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES AND LOW CLOUDS FILL BACK IN
ACROSS THE AREA. MORE RAIN WITH MAYBE A LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWS CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASED VSBYS AT TIMES.

.MARINE...

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING...BUILDING HIGH WAVES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. HAVE THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS HIGHER
WAVES WILL LINGER LATER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-091100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1044 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...INCLUDING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIVER LEVELS WILL
RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH MANY REACHING BANKFULL STAGE WITH SOME
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

LMZ643>646-091100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1044 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTH
POINT LIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES FROM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

REM/DDV
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