Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAVE PUSHED
EAST OF SOUTHERN WI LAST SEVERAL HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NOW CARRYING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SURFACE
COLD FRONT.  NO RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FOR REFERENCE BUT KMKX VAD
SHOWING LOWEST GATE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20KTS. OCNL BREAKS
IN THE STRATUS MAY ALLOW VSBYS IN FOG TO BRIEFLY DROP TO DENSE
LEVELS...BUT NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD AND LAST FOR
AT LEAST 3 HOURS MOST AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN
THE WEST WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CARRY UPSTREAM DENSE FOG FROM
WESTERN WI.  ALSO THIS PART OF WISCONSIN RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY...AND HENCE HAS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.  NO PLANS
FOR DENSE FOG ADVY AT THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR OOZES INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS MRNG WITH STRONGER
PUSH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MN BUT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE AFTN.  850H TEMPERATURES FALL ABOUT 10 DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY.  STILL EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES DUE TO SEVERAL BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS FOR A TIME.
POSSIBLE SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE SECOND COLD
AIR SURGE BUT DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING AT THIS POINT EXCEPT IN THE NORTH. APPEARS NAM HANGS
ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LONG TONIGHT.  WL TREND TOWARD
DECREASING CLOUDS BUT KEEP TEMPS UP DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI MON AND TUE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A VORT MAX
WILL CROSS WI TUE AFTERNOON...RIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHES IN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS WELL...OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS VALUES RATHER THAN THE WARMER
ECMWF. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WE DECOUPLE AT NIGHT AND THE WINDS DIE
DOWN...EXPECT TEMPS TO TANK INTO THE UPPER TEENS/20.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TO SOUTHERN WI. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THEIR WAY BACK UP
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THU. IT WILL BE TOO DRY IN SOUTHERN WI TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FRI NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA...IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME
IN LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WHICH WOULD MEAN A COOL AND
WET WEEKEND. ADJUSTED THE FCST TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR SAT AFTER
THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN COLDER.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL WI WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT THAT COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH BY THEN. PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SUGGESTING TEMPS
JUST BELOW 0C ON SAT...SO THERE STILL IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW LEVEL MIXING AND LINGERING RH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MRNG.  LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
WL MOST LIKELY INCREASE TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG FOR A TIME.  HOWEVER
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY CAUSE CIGS TO RETURN TO MVFR
LEVELS LATE MRNG AND AFTN...WITH CLEARING EXPCD TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING.  SINCE WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE...HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC

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