Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
508 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. MAIN CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE A MILDER MORNING AND SLOWER START TO THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP. SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OBS OUT THERE RIGHT
NOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. WILL LIKELY STAY
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. COULD EVEN SEE
FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME IN SOME AREAS WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. CUT BACK ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS. WITH THE MILDER TEMPS AND SLOWER START...GENERALLY
HAVE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY NOON.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO REALLY PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE IL/IN BORDER. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MILDEST
MODEL...BUT STILL HAS A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN MILWAUKEE BY 18Z
OR 19Z..AND KENOSHA BY 20Z OR 21Z...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIQUID
LEFT IN THE STORM. HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE EAST...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEAST. RAISED POPS AND SNOW IN THE
EVENING GIVEN THE LATER TREND IN MODELS.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES...BUT OVERALL KEPT THINGS
RELATIVELY THE SAME. CUT FOND DU LAC AND ROCK COUNTIES OUT OF THE
WARNING BECAUSE SOMEWHAT LESS SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERALL PUT
THESE LOCATIONS MAINLY WITHIN ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING A WHOLE TWO DAYS OFF FROM PRECIPITATION.
SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COULD BE A LITTLE MIXY AT FIRST WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...BUT WARM AIR WOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY AS PRECIP PICKS UP.
MAINLY RAIN THUS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...RAIN...POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES...OVER
FAR SRN WI AND THE TAF SITES WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSITION TO IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. WHEN THE PCPN TYPE
BECOMES ALL SNOW...THEN VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 MILE WITH
CIGS FROM 200-600 FEET. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND
THE SNOW DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TNT THROUGH
NOON FRI. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE MI FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-
     047-051-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR WIZ052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
122 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BARABOO                 43.47N 89.74W
02/07/2013  E0.00 INCH       SAUK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ICY ROADS.

&&

MG