Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Milwaukee, WI

735 
WWUS53 KMKX 192121
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
421 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

WIC025-049-111-192145-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-130919T2145Z/
DANE WI-IOWA WI-SAUK WI-
421 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAUK...
NORTHERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN DANE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 416 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF WONEWOC TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
BELMONT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DODGEVILLE AROUND 430 PM CDT.
  SPRING GREEN AND REEDSBURG AROUND 435 PM CDT.
  LAKE DELTON AROUND 445 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HILL POINT...GOVERNOR DODGE ST
PARK...PLAIN...LOGANVILLE...RIDGEWAY...LELAND...ROCK SPRINGS...NORTH
FREEDOM...ARENA AND BARNEVELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 9044 4321 9029 4317 9020 4355 9020
      4356 9031 4365 9031 4365 8979 4361 8977
      4360 8972 4357 8973 4357 8968 4334 8970
      4331 8973 4330 8973 4329 8970 4300 8972
      4292 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 246DEG 29KT 4354 9015 4283 9027

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MARQUARDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

CLEARING SKIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL CREATE A GOOD SETUP FOR
STRONG STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ENHANCED LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET DUE TO SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
AROUND DULUTH THROUGH DES MOINES.

MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS HELPED TO LAY OUT AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WALWORTH COUNTY. DEWPOINTS IN THIS WARM
SECTOR ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXCEPT WHERE THEY HAVE
MIXED OUT. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL
CIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE/RAP. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.7 WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
OCCURRENCE. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT IS MISSING FROM THIS SETUP FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION IS SHEAR. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS AROUND 00Z WITH THE CONVECTION. LOCALLY BACKED WINDS NEAR THE
LAKESHORE COULD LEAD TO HIGHER 0-1KM SHEAR. TORNADO THREAT IS NOT
NIL BUT MARGINAL.

THE GENERAL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FAVORS A LINE OF STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALREADY A LINE FORMING NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT IN NORTHEAST IOWA THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
FAR WESTERN MKX FORECAST AREA AROUND 4 PM. DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR DAMAGING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THE HIGH CAPE BUT LACK OF SHEAR SUGGESTS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEANS THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. ONE INCH PER HOUR RAIN
RATES WILL BE LIKELY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY TRAINING
CONVECTION WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SFC TROF/COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE LOW LEVELS...THERE IS STILL SOME
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING HANGING BACK TO THE WEST AS A SHARP
MID LEVEL TROF ENTERS WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING...BEFORE IT ALL PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE DRY AFTER 12Z...OTHERS MORE WET...SO A
CONSENSUS WAS USED AS A BLEND.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST. A NORTHEAST FETCH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH DELTA-T/S APPROACHING 14 WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SFC TROF ATTEMPTS TO ENTER THE WESTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WASHES OUT. THIS IS ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTHWEST OF MADISON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN GENERALLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION...RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO MVFR. RAIN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. GUSTY WNW WINDS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
WITH VFR BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE LAKE LED TO EXPANDING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY DOWN TO THE IL BORDER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT COULD
PACK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 33 KNOTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY WEST WINDS IN WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AREA FOR A TIME ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-201130-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
235 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. A TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-201130-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
235 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL CAUSE WAVES TO REACH 5 FEET AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ON
FRIDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
129 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S LA GRANGE           42.77N 88.60W
09/19/2013  M2.40 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 12 PM CDT.

&&

RSCHAAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

WIZ056-057-062-063-192145-
COLUMBIA-DANE-IOWA-SAUK-
349 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES WEST OF
REEDSBURG TO 43 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REEDSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACKHAWK LAKE RECREATION AREA BY 355 PM CDT...
  GOVERNOR DODGE STATE PARK BY 410 PM CDT...
  LONE ROCK AIRPORT BY 415 PM CDT...
  SPRING GREEN BY 420 PM CDT...
  REEDSBURG BY 430 PM CDT...
  MAZOMANIE AND BLACK EARTH BY 435 PM CDT...
  WISCONSIN DELLS AND LAKE DELTON BY 445 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

MARQUARDT