Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
853 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE
TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER LINE COMPLEX. THE BEST AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK HAS
STRUGGLED TO EXPAND FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH ITS HOURLY UPDATES IN BRINGING A LINE OF STORMS
THROUGH HERE BETWEEN ABOUT 1 AND 4 AM...HITTING MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS COULD BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY REACH
THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IF THIS THING GETS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GOOD
COLD POOL DYNAMICS...IT WILL LIVE ON LONGER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CURRENT TIMING HAS IT
ENTERING MARQUETTE...GREEN LAKE...SAUK COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 1 AM...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 4 AM. THE LINE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...SO CURRENT
MOVEMENT ISN/T AN ACCURATE EXTRAPOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. THEY SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 2 AM AND
MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA AROUND 4 AM. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM THE STORMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

IT SHOULD BE STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
FOCUSING WEST CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM 10 PM TO 4 AM.

THE BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE AND
IF ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET. LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS AND ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG
CAPE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35-45
KT RANGE...PLENTY TO CONSIDER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST
UPDATE OF THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK
OUT OF THE EAST...BUT KEPT IT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
BOWING LINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO CONTINUE TO ASSESS STORM TIMING AND THE SEVERE THREAT
FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHOWER
OR STORM POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. LOOKS LIKE
WARM AIRMASS WILL LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TOMORROW.
SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND EXITING CDFNT AND
LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AVERAGING A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON CARRYING WEAK CDFNT THRU SRN WI THURSDAY
NIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN DEPICTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE...HOWEVER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED.  FOR NOW WL ADD SMALL POPS FOR -SHRA ACROSS NRN CWA LATER
THU NIGHT AS LITTLE INSTABILITY SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME.  SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH OF STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AFFECT SRN WI ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN STRENGTH AND
EASTWARD TIMING OF DEEP VORTEX NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD.  ECMWF AND GEM SHOWING LESS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW...WHILE GFS HAS
TRENDED BACK TO OLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

THE MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL MS VALLEY
REGION WILL ALLOW PRECIP AND CLOUDS FORMING ALONG AND NORTH OF
STRONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INCH CLOSER TO SRN WI.  HWVR AT
THIS TIME STILL APPEARS DRIER ZONAL FLOW AND SLOW-MOVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO SRN WI FOR THE
WEEKEND.  UPSTREAM RIDGING ARCING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES LOOKS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA ACROSS WI SUN NGT/MON TIME FRAME.  SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME PER TIME-SECTIONS SO WL
CONTINUE SMALL POPS.  DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GFS 5 DAY 5H MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEIGHTS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...CONTRIBUTING TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY OR MID WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE HEAD EAST...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

COULD SEE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN STORMS TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER
CIGS FOR TOMORROW...SO WILL KEEP VFR IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-071945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO BELOIT.

THE TIMING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS BEST BETWEEN 10 PM CDT AND
4 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

LMZ643>646-071945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 11 PM CDT AND 5 AM CDT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
FRIDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

WIZ046-047-057-070530-
COLUMBIA-GREEN LAKE-MARQUETTE-
1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE
COUNTIES...

AT 1134 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 59 MILES WEST OF BERLIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH THEY WILL BRING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WESTFIELD BY 1205 AM CDT...
  MONTELLO BY 1215 AM CDT...
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRINCETON BY 1225 AM CDT...
  MARKESAN BY 1230 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE  BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.

DAVIS

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