River Flood Warning 71, NWS Milwaukee, WI

466 
WGUS83 KMKX 222112
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...
  EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER NEAR BLANCHARDVILLE AFFECTING 
  LAFAYETTE COUNTY 
  FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER AFFECTING LAKE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES 
  PECATONICA RIVER AT MARTINTOWN AFFECTING GREEN COUNTY 
  SUGAR RIVER AT BRODHEAD AFFECTING ROCK AND GREEN COUNTIES 
 

&& 
WIC065-230912-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-130624T2005Z/
/BCHW3.2.ER.130622T1406Z.130623T1200Z.130624T0805Z.NO/
412 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER NEAR BLANCHARDVILLE.
* AT  3:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.8 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.1 FEET...THIS LEVEL IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE 
  FLOOD MEANING THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR OF THE
  RIVER REACHING THIS LEVEL.  MCKELLAR PARK IN BLANCHARDVILLE IS 
  COMPLETELY FLOODED.  WATER COVERS THE PARK'S SWIMMING POOL AND 
  TENNIS COURTS.

$$

ILC097-WIC059-230911-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0070.130623T0600Z-130628T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.130623T0600Z.130624T1200Z.130628T1200Z.UU/
412 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER.
* AT  3:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 11.4 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.4 FEET...THERE ARE 2 INCHES OF WATER OVER 77TH 
  STREET IN THE WHEATLAND AREA.

$$

WIC045-230911-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0071.130623T0100Z-130627T0524Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.130623T0100Z.130624T0000Z.130626T2324Z.NO/
412 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PECATONICA RIVER AT MARTINTOWN.
* AT  3:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 16.8 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.2 FEET...THIS LEVEL IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE 
  FLOOD MEANING THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR OF THE
  RIVER REACHING THIS LEVEL.

$$

WIC045-105-230911-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130626T0100Z/
/BROW3.2.ER.130622T2123Z.130623T1800Z.130625T1900Z.NO/
412 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SUGAR RIVER AT BRODHEAD.
* AT  3:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 8.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODWATERS ARE OVER HIGHWAY T IN ROCK 
  COUNTY...AND THERE IS FLOODING IN SUGAR RIVER PARK IN THE AVON 
  BOTTOMS AREA OF ROCK COUNTY.  THERE IS WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL AND 
  LOWLAND FLOODING IN THE BRODHEAD AREA.  A FLOOD OF THIS LEVEL CAN 
  BE CONSIDERED TO BE BETWEEN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FLOOD AND A 50 
  PERCENT CHANCE FLOOD MEANING THERE IS BETWEEN A 20 AND 50 PERCENT 
  CHANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR OF THE RIVER REACHING THIS LEVEL.

$$

&& 

RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL RIVER GAGING
LOCATIONS. THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PAST
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ETC..AND PREDICTED
FUTURE 24 HOUR BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
 
(STAGES IN FT.)        BANK-      LATEST         FORECAST STAGES
-               FLOOD  FULL      OBSERVED        ...FOR 7 AM...
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE    STAGE/TIME       SUN  MON  TUE  WED
BLANCHARDVILLE  11.0   9.0  11.78 03 PM 06/22  15.8  9.5  5.0  4.9
NEW MUNSTER     10.0   9.0   9.11 03 PM 06/22  10.5 11.4 11.3 11.0
MARTINTOWN      13.5   9.5   9.84 03 PM 06/22  16.3 16.7 16.5 15.0
BRODHEAD         5.0   4.5   4.44 03 PM 06/22   8.0  7.7  5.6  3.6

-                   HIGHEST      24 HOUR CHANGE
-                   OBSERVED     IN RIVER STAGE
-                   STAGE IN      (FT.) UP TO      HIGHEST STAGE
-                   THE LAST    LATEST OBSERVED     FORECAST IN
-                   7 DAYS          STAGE           NEXT 7 DAYS
BLANCHARDVILLE  11.78  03 PM 06/22    7.16      15.80 07 AM 06/23
MARTINTOWN       9.84  03 PM 06/22    4.12      16.80 07 PM 06/23
BRODHEAD         4.44  03 PM 06/22    3.13       8.20 01 PM 06/23
NEW MUNSTER      8.67  12 PM 06/22    1.48      11.40 07 AM 06/24

...BELOW IS PREDICTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION INFORMATION...

(BCHW3) PREDICTED 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
BLANCHARDVILLE: 7 AM-1 PM   0.27
BLANCHARDVILLE: 1 PM-7 PM   0.02
BLANCHARDVILLE: 7 PM-1 AM   0.03
BLANCHARDVILLE: 1 AM-7 AM   1.12

(NMSW3) PREDICTED 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
NEW MUNSTER: 7 AM-1 PM   0.24
NEW MUNSTER: 1 PM-7 PM   0.02
NEW MUNSTER: 7 PM-1 AM   0.00
NEW MUNSTER: 1 AM-7 AM   0.18

(MTNW3) PREDICTED 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
MARTINTOWN: 7 AM-1 PM   0.31
MARTINTOWN: 1 PM-7 PM   0.01
MARTINTOWN: 7 PM-1 AM   0.03
MARTINTOWN: 1 AM-7 AM   1.11

(BROW3) PREDICTED 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
BRODHEAD: 7 AM-1 PM   0.29
BRODHEAD: 1 PM-7 PM   0.00
BRODHEAD: 7 PM-1 AM   0.00
BRODHEAD: 1 AM-7 AM   0.71
BELOIT: 1 AM-7 AM   0.30
BELOIT: 1 AM-7 AM   0.30
BELOIT: 1 AM-7 AM   0.30
BELOIT: 1 AM-7 AM   0.30


LAT...LON 4282 8985 4273 8985 4283 8897 4283 8978
       4273 8997 4273 8978            
LAT...LON 4260 8832 4260 8813 4262 8813 4262 8832
      4255 8810 4255 8828             
LAT...LON 4250 8988 4250 8970 4250 8988 4250 8970
      4257 8990 4257 8973             
LAT...LON 4260 8948 4260 8930 4260 8935 4250 8935
      4267 8950 4267 8933

546 
WGUS83 KMKX 230310
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...
 
  EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER NEAR BLANCHARDVILLE AFFECTING LAFAYETTE
  COUNTY 
  FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER AFFECTING LAKE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES 
  PECATONICA RIVER AT MARTINTOWN AFFECTING GREEN COUNTY 
  SUGAR RIVER AT BRODHEAD AFFECTING ROCK AND GREEN COUNTIES 
 

&& 
WIC065-231510-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-130624T1500Z/
/BCHW3.1.ER.130622T1406Z.130623T1200Z.130624T0300Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER NEAR BLANCHARDVILLE.
* AT 10:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  LATE EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MCKELLAR PARK IS COMPLETELY FLOODED.  WATER
  COVERS THE PARK'S SWIMMING POOL AND TENNIS COURTS.

$$

ILC097-WIC059-231510-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0070.130623T0800Z-130628T0600Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.130623T0800Z.130624T1800Z.130628T0000Z.UU/
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER.
* AT  9:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 11.1 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.4 FEET...THERE ARE 2 INCHES OF WATER OVER 77TH 
  STREET IN THE WHEATLAND AREA.

$$

WIC045-231509-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-130626T1000Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.130623T1500Z.130624T1800Z.130626T0400Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PECATONICA RIVER AT MARTINTOWN.
* AT  9:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...FLOODWATERS AFFECT MARTINTOWN ROAD AND WEST
  RIVER ROAD IN THE MARTINTOWN AREA.  UPSTREAM IN THE BROWNTOWN 
  AREA...FLOODWATERS AFFECT HIGHWAY MM AND WEST INDIES ROAD.

$$

WIC045-105-231509-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130625T1200Z/
/BROW3.1.ER.130623T0348Z.130624T0000Z.130625T0600Z.NO/
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SUGAR RIVER AT BRODHEAD.
* AT  9:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 6.7 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.5 FEET...THERE IS WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOWLAND AND 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND.  DOWNSTREAM IN THE AVON BOTTOMS AREA OF ROCK 
  COUNTY...THERE IS FLOODING IN SUGAR RIVER PARK.

$$

&&

RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL RIVER GAGING
LOCATIONS. THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PAST
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ETC..AND PREDICTED 
FUTURE 24 HOUR BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
 
(STAGES IN FT.)        BANK-      LATEST         FORECAST STAGES
-               FLOOD  FULL      OBSERVED        ...FOR 7 PM...
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE    STAGE/TIME       SUN  MON  TUE  WED
BLANCHARDVILLE  11.0   9.0  12.64 10 PM 06/22  11.7  5.3  4.9  4.9
NEW MUNSTER     10.0   9.0   9.63 09 PM 06/22  10.7 11.1 10.9 10.4
MARTINTOWN      13.5   9.5  10.46 09 PM 06/22  14.0 14.1 13.7 11.1
BRODHEAD         5.0   4.5   4.66 10 PM 06/22   6.7  5.5  3.8  2.5

-                   HIGHEST      24 HOUR CHANGE
-                   OBSERVED     IN RIVER STAGE
-                   STAGE IN      (FT.) UP TO      HIGHEST STAGE
-                   THE LAST    LATEST OBSERVED     FORECAST IN
-                   7 DAYS          STAGE           NEXT 7 DAYS
BLANCHARDVILLE  12.64  10 PM 06/22    7.93      13.70 07 AM 06/23
MARTINTOWN      10.46  09 PM 06/22    4.73      14.20 01 PM 06/24
BRODHEAD         4.73  08 PM 06/22    3.34       6.70 07 PM 06/23
NEW MUNSTER      9.42  06 PM 06/22    2.06      11.10 01 PM 06/24

...BELOW IS PREDICTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION INFORMATION FOR 
THE LISTED SITES...

(BCHW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
BLANCHARDVILLE: 7 PM-1 AM   0.03
BLANCHARDVILLE: 1 AM-7 AM   1.12
BLANCHARDVILLE: 7 AM-1 PM   0.62
BLANCHARDVILLE: 1 PM-7 PM   0.19

(BROW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
BRODHEAD: 7 PM-1 AM   0.00
BRODHEAD: 1 AM-7 AM   0.71
BRODHEAD: 7 AM-1 PM   0.60
BRODHEAD: 1 PM-7 PM   0.10

(MTNW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
MARTINTOWN: 7 PM-1 AM   0.03
MARTINTOWN: 1 AM-7 AM   1.11
MARTINTOWN: 7 AM-1 PM   0.65
MARTINTOWN: 1 PM-7 PM   0.14

(NMSW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
NEW MUNSTER: 7 PM-1 AM   0.00
NEW MUNSTER: 1 AM-7 AM   0.18
NEW MUNSTER: 7 AM-1 PM   0.33
NEW MUNSTER: 1 PM-7 PM   0.06
REEDSBURG: 1 PM-7 PM   0.33
REEDSBURG: 1 PM-7 PM   0.33
REEDSBURG: 1 PM-7 PM   0.33
REEDSBURG: 1 PM-7 PM   0.33


LAT...LON 4282 8985 4273 8985 4283 8897 4283 8978
       4273 8997 4273 8978            
LAT...LON 4260 8832 4260 8813 4262 8813 4262 8832
      4255 8810 4255 8828             
LAT...LON 4250 8988 4250 8970 4250 8988 4250 8970
      4257 8990 4257 8973             
LAT...LON 4260 8948 4260 8930 4260 8935 4250 8935
      4267 8950 4267 8933

177 
WGUS83 KMKX 231002
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
502 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WISCONSIN...
 
  PECATONICA RIVER AT MARTINTOWN AFFECTING GREEN COUNTY
  SUGAR RIVER AT BRODHEAD AFFECTING ROCK AND GREEN COUNTIES
 

&& 
WIC045-231032-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-130626T1200Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.130626T0106Z.130626T0600Z.130626T0600Z.NO/
502 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PECATONICA RIVER AT MARTINTOWN.
* AT  4:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...FLOODWATERS AFFECT MARTINTOWN ROAD AND WEST
  RIVER ROAD IN THE MARTINTOWN AREA.  UPSTREAM IN THE BROWNTOWN 
  AREA...FLOODWATERS AFFECT HIGHWAY MM AND WEST INDIES ROAD.

$$

WIC045-105-231032-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130625T0600Z/
/BROW3.1.ER.130624T1954Z.130625T0000Z.130625T0000Z.NO/
502 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SUGAR RIVER AT BRODHEAD.
* AT  3:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE TO NEAR 4.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 5.0 FEET...SOME ROADS BECOME FLOODED ABOUT 6 MILES 
  DOWNSTREAM IN AVON TOWNSHIP IN ROCK COUNTY.  IN THE AVON BOTTOMS 
  AREA OF ROCK COUNTY...SOME MINOR FLOODING DEVELOPS IN SUGAR RIVER 
  PARK...INCLUDING THE BOAT RAMP.

$$

&&

RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL RIVER GAGING
LOCATIONS. THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PAST
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ETC..AND PREDICTED 
FUTURE 24 HOUR BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
 
(STAGES IN FT.)        BANK-      LATEST         FORECAST STAGES
-               FLOOD  FULL      OBSERVED        ...FOR 7 PM...
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE    STAGE/TIME       MON  TUE  WED  THU
MARTINTOWN      13.5   9.5  10.80 04 AM 06/23  11.6 12.8 13.4 13.2
BRODHEAD         5.0   4.5   4.30 04 AM 06/23   4.2  5.2  4.6  3.7

-                   HIGHEST      24 HOUR CHANGE
-                   OBSERVED     IN RIVER STAGE
-                   STAGE IN      (FT.) UP TO      HIGHEST STAGE
-                   THE LAST    LATEST OBSERVED     FORECAST IN
-                   7 DAYS          STAGE           NEXT 7 DAYS
MARTINTOWN      10.80  04 AM 06/23    4.79      13.90 01 AM 06/26
BRODHEAD         4.73  08 PM 06/22    2.32       5.20 07 PM 06/24

...BELOW IS PREDICTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION INFORMATION FOR 
THE LISTED SITES...

(BROW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
BRODHEAD: 7 PM-1 AM   0.00
BRODHEAD: 1 AM-7 AM   1.01
BRODHEAD: 7 AM-1 PM   0.00
BRODHEAD: 1 PM-7 PM   0.00

(MTNW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
MARTINTOWN: 7 PM-1 AM   0.03
MARTINTOWN: 1 AM-7 AM   0.91
MARTINTOWN: 7 AM-1 PM   0.00
MARTINTOWN: 1 PM-7 PM   0.05

LAT...LON 4250 8988 4250 8970 4250 8988 4250 8970
      4257 8990 4257 8973             
LAT...LON 4260 8948 4260 8930 4260 8935 4250 8935
      4267 8950 4267 8933

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1020 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.UPDATE...
N-S CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TO CATEGORICAL. HAVE
KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES SINCE USUAL DAYTIME HEATING
WILL NOT BE THERE. IN FACT...WE WILL PROBABLY KNOCK THEM BACK IN
MORE SINCE IT'LL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY
OVERHEAD. YESTERDAY WE NEVER RECOVERED PAST 80.

THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE QUIET AFTER THE CONVECTIVE BAND
EXITS....LIKE YESTERDAY. FORECAST MODELS..BOTH THE LARGE SCALE AND
MESO TYPES HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
SHOVED BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO GET
REGENERATION OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODELS HINTS AT THIS.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
JUST PRIOR TO 18Z THERE WERE POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ALONG OR NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO BE REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THEN OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS.
BRIEF MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/RAIN. CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE UP AND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 238 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE 250 MB UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AREA...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT 500
MB A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA AND TENT TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN POINTED INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET IS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE MAIN JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA TODAY
WITH A 30 KNOT FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AGAIN TONIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.

NONE OF THE MESO MODELS ARE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IT APPEARS A WEST TO EAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM THE IOWA MINNESOTA BORDER TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
JUST NORTH OF THE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS.  THE EAST PART OF
THIS LINE WAS SAGGING SOUTH...BUT WEST OF MADISON THERE IS A SLOW
NORTH PUSH.

THIS WOULD SUPPORT A LARGE MCC WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.  THEN MORE STORMS COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. HOWEVER THE CURRENT SHORT TERM MESO MODELS WOULD NOT
INDICATE ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR THIS.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE TOUGH AS WELL...DEPENDING ON CONVECTION
TRENDS AND CLOUDS. M ID 80S MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
DEBRIS. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS IT WILL BE HUMID.

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WX/POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY\S WEATHER
ARE TIED TO WHETHER OR NOT A MESOSCALE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE
PRESENT AND CAP CAN HOLD. OTHERWISE THE OTHER INGREDIENTS FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT - A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70. THOUGH STORM MODE AND
ORGANIZATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN ALL OF THIS GIVEN THE LOW
VALUES OF DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR. DRY CONDITIONS MAY BE SEEN IF
THE CAP HOLDS AND SUNDAY LACKS A LIFTING MECHANISM. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXISTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WHEREIN...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AS PRECIP
FROM THE MORNING COULD LINGER AND GIVEN THE SUPPORT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT...SEEN WITH LOW-LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVG IN PLACE AND LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL WAA OCCURRING.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 925 HPA TEMPS SUNDAY ARE AROUND 24-26 C THAT
CORRESPOND TO 87-91 F PROVIDED INSOLATION/MIXING IS SUFFICIENT. ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THOUGH WOULD IMPACT THIS. RH FIELDS AND WHAT IS
EXPECTED REGARDING WX/POPS GIVE CONFIDENCE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
HIGHER GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 FORECAST.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SHIFT IN THE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL 500
HPA PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY-TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH HT RISES IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY-EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS SHORT WAVES
TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER COOLER AIR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOVING TOWARDS BELOW/NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR IN STORMS...WITH VFR TO
THE NORTH OF THE BAND. SOME MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY
VFR. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS/NEAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S WILL OVERSPREAD THE COOL LAKE
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...AND MAY
LINGER ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...SH
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
337 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM ELKHART LAKE TO WEST BEND TO MONROE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL END THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO MONROE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM THE
DELLS TO WAUKESHA...TO JUST WEST OF KENOSHA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 90 TO 95 ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND AROUND
95 SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LMZ643>646-230845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
337 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FLOWING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT
TIMES.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NNE BLUE MOUNDS         43.02N 89.83W
06/22/2013  M1.90 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

&&

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       N PEWAUKEE              43.09N 88.25W
06/22/2013  M2.00 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR STORM TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM CDT 6/22. 1.6 INCHES
            FELL FROM 10 PM CDT ON 6/21 TO 8 AM CDT 6/22.

&&

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERAL POINT           42.86N 90.18W
06/22/2013                   IOWA               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            SINK HOLE DEVELOPED IN MINERAL POINT FROM HEAVY RAIN.
            MANY PORTIONS OF ROADS ACROSS IOWA COUNTY WERE UNDER
            WATER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROADS WASHED OUT.
            RANDOM TREES DOWN ON ROADS DUE TO SOFT GROUND. 5 TO 8
            INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED FROM OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
            MORNING STORMS. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLANCHARDVILLE          42.81N 89.86W
06/22/2013                   LAFAYETTE          WI   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER REPORTED OVER COUNTY HWY H IN BLANCHARDVILLE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW GLARUS              42.81N 89.63W
06/22/2013                   GREEN              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD PARTIALLY WASHED OUT IN WESTERN PART OF TOWN. 4 TO 6
            INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED IN THE NEW GLARUS AREA. WATER
            ALSO REPORTED ACROSS A COUPLE OF ROADS TO THE WEST OF
            MONTICELLO.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW MOUNT HOREB       42.94N 89.78W
06/22/2013                   DANE               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER IN SOUTHWEST DANE
            COUNTY.

&&

MRC