River Flood Warning 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

744 
WGUS83 KMKX 211205
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
605 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...WISCONSIN...
 
  FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER AFFECTING LAKE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
 
ILC097-WIC059-211235-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130222T0300Z/
/NMSW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
605 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FOX RIVER NEAR NEW MUNSTER.
* AT  5:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10.0 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 9.5 FEET BY .
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOODWATERS ARE NEAR SOME HOMES ALONG 
  HIGHWAY W IN THE SILVER LAKE AREA.

$$

&&

RIVER FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL RIVER GAGING
LOCATIONS. THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT PAST
PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ETC..AND PREDICTED 
FUTURE 24 HOUR BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
 
(STAGES IN FT.)        BANK-      LATEST         FORECAST STAGES
-               FLOOD  FULL      OBSERVED        ...FOR 6 PM...
LOCATION       STAGE  STAGE    STAGE/TIME       FRI  SAT  SUN  MON
NEW MUNSTER     10.0   9.0   9.73 05 AM 02/21   9.6  9.6  9.5  9.2

-                   HIGHEST      24 HOUR CHANGE
-                   OBSERVED     IN RIVER STAGE
-                   STAGE IN      (FT.) UP TO      HIGHEST STAGE
-                   THE LAST    LATEST OBSERVED     FORECAST IN
-                   7 DAYS          STAGE           NEXT 7 DAYS
NEW MUNSTER     10.19  10 PM 02/19   -0.24       9.65 12 PM 02/21

...BELOW IS PREDICTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION INFORMATION FOR 
THE LISTED SITES...

(NMSW3)  6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IN.)
NEW MUNSTER: 6 PM-MIDN   0.00
NEW MUNSTER: MIDN-6 AM   0.00
NEW MUNSTER: 6 AM-NOON   0.00
NEW MUNSTER: NOON-6 PM   0.00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF
HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY...AS WIND
FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOP. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW FLURRIES TOWARD THE LAKE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND SFC TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL DISRUPT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS ARE LOW AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...SO TEMPS MAY FALL AMOUNT IF CLOUDS REMAIN FAIRLY THIN.
SIDED A BIT TOWARD THE COLDER MODELS...AS THICKER CIRRUS IS STILL
BACK TO SOUTHERN IOWA.

HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER THAN TODAY...WITH MID 20S
EXPECTED MOST PLACES.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO
HIGH.

SFC LOW FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL TRACK FROM KANSAS TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM EXIST WITH THE
FORMER PLACING THE SFC LOW A BIT MORE SOUTH AS THE GFS BRINGS THE
LOW FROM EXTREME SE WI TO MICHIGAN\S NORTHERN PENINSULA...WITH
THE LATTER TRACKING THE LOW FROM SW WI TO MICHIGAN\S NORTHERN
PENINSULA. NAM WAS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THE 6-HR QPF ENDING AT
6 AND 12 UTC FRIDAY COMPARED TO GEM/GFS/ECMWF. LEANED MORE TOWARDS
A MODEL CONSENSUS. MAIN FORCING IS GOOD WITHIN THIS TIME PERIOD
AS STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EXIST ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE
DGZ. FRIDAY MORNING THEREAFTER...DRY AIR MOVES IN SC AND SE
WI...DRYING THE DGZ LAYER OUT A BIT...THOUGH COLUMN SATURATES BACK
UP BY THE MID-AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 TO 12 UTC. SNOW-LIQUID
WATER RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 12:1 TO 15:1...SUCH THAT A
HIGH-END ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WITH A RANGE OF 5 INCHES FROM THE
EXTREME SW TO 3 INCHES IN THE NE. COMPARATIVELY...THE SPC SREF
MEAN HAS THE SNOW- LIQUID RATIO BETWEEN 6 AND 12 UTC JUST UNDER
15:1. COMPLICATED FACTOR WILL BE GUSTY EAST WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT CAN IMPAIR VISIBILITIES.

MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE NOON
FRIDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL BEING LESS
THAN AN INCH AFTERWARD AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHEREIN...THE UPPER- LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES SLOWLY SATURDAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

SHORT REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH COINCIDES ALONG WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LATER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO LOW.

MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH ON MONDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO RIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THOUGH...GIVEN
THERMAL PROFILES AND THE TRACKS BETWEEN ECMWF AND
GFS...UNCERTAINTY EXIST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE BEGINNING.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE A MIX BECOMES LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RETURN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW FOR PLACES AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. NEAR THE LAKE...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL SEEING THE THREAT IN THE BULK OF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...SO WILL PLAN TO KEEP MENTION OF LOWER CIGS IN
THE EASTERN TAFS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL SNOW MOVES IN
LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THINKING SNOW WILL REACH THE MSN TO MKE AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY NATURE OF THE WINDS THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BUILD WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS TO AROUND 4 FEET TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER WAVES...PARTICULARLY TOWARD OPEN
WATERS. SEEMED BORDERLINE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VEERING
SOUTHEAST AND EASING THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR WIZ056-062-063-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ET/REM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-212145-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
336 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING MODERATE SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MODERATE SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT
SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-212145-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
336 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS
AND WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME. AREAS OF
FREEZING SPRAY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES TO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

REM
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