Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONGEALED AND ARE PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THESE ARE BEING FED BY SOUTHERLY 850MB
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HELP FROM VARIOUS 500MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS BATCH OF
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

MORE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTS INTO THE REGION AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS. 850MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES
FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH GOOD 250MB
DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE.

THINK THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MODERATE RAIN EVENT TONIGHT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
CAPES ARE QUITE WEAK...SO DO NOT THINK AMOUNTS WILL GET MUCH HIGHER
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND FOND DU LAC COUNTY...AS THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
DURING THIS TIME. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR. THINK MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT...ON ELEVATED SURFACES/TREES. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
FAIRLY WARM...SO MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH GLAZING ON ROAD SURFACES.

CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND 500MB LOW SHIFTS INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING INTO THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MID LEVELS DRYING OUT DURING THIS
TIME...SO ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 130 KNOT JET LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. ONE
LAST ARE OF RATHER STRONG 250 MB DIVERGENCE AFFECTS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THE 500 MB TROUGH IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE
ACROSS THEN THE MID LEVEL LOW ENTERS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF AROUND 10 MICROBARS/SEC
DURING THE EARLY EVENING LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER IN
THE NIGHT. DESPITE ALL THIS DYNAMICS...A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH
EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARE..UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
700 MB LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BY THIS TIME THE
REMAINING 700 WARM LAYER COOLS AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD THEN BE
SNOW EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THIS SATURATES THE 700 MB LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 CELSIUS.

THE 850 MB LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST INTO SATURDAY WITH LIKELY
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUING EVEN AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE WEAKER WITH THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA WITH THE
00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE SUNDAY NIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE MAIN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOST MODELS BRING RAIN BACK INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY. THEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
MISSOURI TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA WITH MOST MODELS
BRINGING RAIN BACK TUESDAY. WE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE COOL LOW LEVEL
AIR WITH EAST WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

THE GFS HOLDS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEAST QUICKER.

AS A RESULT...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA AREA
WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z DGEX BRINGS A DRYING TREND BEHIND A
QUICKER LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER AS WELL
INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
LINGER THURSDAY. MAY SEE CONDITIONS DOWN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REMAINING NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THE STRONG GUSTY
EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE VERY HIGH WAVES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS HIGH AS 10
TO 14 FEET.

THE GALES SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 4 PM CDT THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME INTO FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO
THE EAST. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-056-057.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
447 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E HOLY HILL           43.24N 88.29W
04/10/2013  M0.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            0.50 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 6 AM TODAY. 3.02 INCHES OF RAIN
            SINCE 6 AM MONDAY.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
549 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW MADISON            43.04N 89.44W
04/10/2013  M2.87 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.87 INCHES OF RAIN STORM TOTAL SINCE ABOUT NOON MONDAY.
            1.50 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.

&&

BHAHN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>