Freezing Rain Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONGEALED AND ARE PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THESE ARE BEING FED BY SOUTHERLY 850MB
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HELP FROM VARIOUS 500MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS BATCH OF
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

MORE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTS INTO THE REGION AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS. 850MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BECOMES
FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH GOOD 250MB
DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE.

THINK THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MODERATE RAIN EVENT TONIGHT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
CAPES ARE QUITE WEAK...SO DO NOT THINK AMOUNTS WILL GET MUCH HIGHER
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND FOND DU LAC COUNTY...AS THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
DURING THIS TIME. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR. THINK MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT...ON ELEVATED SURFACES/TREES. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
FAIRLY WARM...SO MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH GLAZING ON ROAD SURFACES.

CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND 500MB LOW SHIFTS INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING INTO THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MID LEVELS DRYING OUT DURING THIS
TIME...SO ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE 130 KNOT JET LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. ONE
LAST ARE OF RATHER STRONG 250 MB DIVERGENCE AFFECTS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THE 500 MB TROUGH IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE
ACROSS THEN THE MID LEVEL LOW ENTERS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF AROUND 10 MICROBARS/SEC
DURING THE EARLY EVENING LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER IN
THE NIGHT. DESPITE ALL THIS DYNAMICS...A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH
EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARE..UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
700 MB LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BY THIS TIME THE
REMAINING 700 WARM LAYER COOLS AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD THEN BE
SNOW EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THIS SATURATES THE 700 MB LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 CELSIUS.

THE 850 MB LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST INTO SATURDAY WITH LIKELY
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUING EVEN AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE WEAKER WITH THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA WITH THE
00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE SUNDAY NIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE MAIN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOST MODELS BRING RAIN BACK INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY. THEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
MISSOURI TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA WITH MOST MODELS
BRINGING RAIN BACK TUESDAY. WE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE COOL LOW LEVEL
AIR WITH EAST WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

THE GFS HOLDS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEAST QUICKER.

AS A RESULT...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A LOW INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA AREA
WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z DGEX BRINGS A DRYING TREND BEHIND A
QUICKER LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER AS WELL
INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
LINGER THURSDAY. MAY SEE CONDITIONS DOWN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REMAINING NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THE STRONG GUSTY
EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE VERY HIGH WAVES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS HIGH AS 10
TO 14 FEET.

THE GALES SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 4 PM CDT THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME INTO FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO
THE EAST. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-056-057.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
800 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-110845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
800 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MANY REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
SOME RIVERS WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...WHICH
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE ROCK RIVER...BARABOO RIVER...AND THE FOX
RIVER IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN REPORTS AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-110845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
800 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA AND FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DAVIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
04/10/2013  M2.2 INCH        MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RSCHAAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013...CORRECTED...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
04/10/2013  M2.2 INCH        MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

RSCHAAR