Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAPID DECAY OF
MCS OVERNIGHT.  ONE ACTIVE AREA OF STORMS MOVING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT EVEN THIS HAS SHOWN
DOWNWARD TREND AND SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE 12Z.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WE MAY HAVE
AN ISSUE AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL.  BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND WARMER HIGHS AND
TDS AROUND 70F SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL PRETTY MUGGY.

LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST FOR A TIME TODAY SO IT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY QUIET MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  BOTH GFS AND NAM
HAVE A DRY POCKET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY AND THERE
IS SUBTLE EVIDENCE OF THAT ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY.

THEN LOW LEVEL POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES AREA TO THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET LEANS OVER
AGAIN.  PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS TOPPING RIDGE AXIS WITH AN
EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION HAS THIS LOOKING MUCH
LIKE SERIES OF MADDOX MESOHIGH TYPE FLASH FLOOD EVENTS.

NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO 150-175% OF NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2.0".  CORFIDI VECTORS HAVE THE OMINOUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LOOK AS THEY HAVE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO HEAVY RAIN
THREAT SEEMS TO CONTINUE.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE THE LOOK OF A FAST MOVING LINE OF
STORMS...WIDESPREAD 4-8" RAINFALL OVER THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ONGOING FLOODING CALLS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  PER COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN WILL
START THIS IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN IT THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SITS OVER
THE AREA WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ADJUSTED THE QPF UP A BIT TONIGHT AND MONDAY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE
WESTERN HALF THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TO PUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS AND
HOW HIGH TO GO BUT LOCALLY 1-2" PER 12 HOURS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.  WITH
1 HOUR FFG ONLY 1 TO 1.5" IN THE WEST WE WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND MODEL TIMING/FEATURE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FCST PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO
BEING PRIMED AS SEEN BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SYNOPTIC ASCENT THAT IS PRESENT WITH Q-VECTOR DIVG AND LOW-LEVEL
WAA OCCURRING.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE PRESENCE OF OR
LACK OF LIFT/FOCUS...BE IT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SFC
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN EITHER MEAN LAYER OR MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW
POINTS FCST IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY BUT IT
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST HERE AS WELL. LLJ AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON
SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR POPS/WX WENT WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND CONVECTION UNCERTAINTY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL/AT 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI VECTORS
EXHIBIT SLOW MOTIONS. ESPECIALLY IF THE HARDER HIT AREAS IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

925 HPA TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIT OF A SPREAD MONDAY WITH THE
ECMWF COOLER THAN THE NAM/GFS. ALSO...WE HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM THE LAST
FEW FCST IN REGARD TO HIGHS...SO WENT WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INDIVIDUAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AFTER
WHICH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES WITH A 500 HPA TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER.
MODELS QUITE A BIT APART IN REGARD TO HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES WITH
THE GFS DIGGING NOTABLY STRONGER. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WED AND
OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

OTHER THAN PESKY MVFR VISIBILITY DROPS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT MVFR AT KMSN TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WI
TAFS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WITH ABOUT A 4 MB GRADIENT BETWEEN KGRB AND KUGN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL AT KMKE IN THE 19-23Z PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...ET
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CRAVEN/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-232100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF A REEDSBURG TO HOLLANDALE TO DARLINGTON LINE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND RENEWED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE IOWA COUNTY AREA WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT...AND IS STILL DEALING WITH FLOODED ROADS.

MANY RIVERS IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE AT...OR FORECAST TO BE
AT BANKFULL OR FLOOD LEVELS. KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM THE
DELLS TO WAUKESHA...TO JUST WEST OF KENOSHA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO NEAR 100 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

LMZ643>646-232100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FLOWING OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT
TIMES.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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