Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES CENTERED EAST OF OCRACOKE WITH THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS NOW OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT ONLY A SLOW NORTH DRIFT TO THE LOW THRU THE OVERNIGHT BUT
THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING. WILL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS
FOR THE 4 PM FORECAST RELEASE.

BATCH OF STEADIER RAIN HAS NOW ROTATED OVER NW INLAND AREAS WITH
MORE SCATTERED PRECIP ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT BUT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN REMAIN ESP OVER OBX. THE TREND OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY/DRIZZLY AS DRIER AIR PIVOTS AROUND THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR I95 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.

A COOL NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES SLOWLY PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WHILE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS NORTH INTO VA. SCATTERED PRECIP WILL
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY BUT THE DEEPER WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AREAS SO
WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS THERE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SUN
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS SO HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL,
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CAROLINAS THU
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXCELLENT MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM
ATLANTIC AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH DRYING INITIATING ALOFT THUR
NIGHT INTO FRI. NE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WHEN
COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL LEAD TO PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER THROUGH LATE WEEK AND WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUTER
BANKS CLOSER TO UPPER LOW. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TUE INTO EARLY WED DRY...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY IFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE REACHED IN THE STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY THU MORNING. ONLY
SLOWLY RISING CIGS EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL DRYING WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR STRATUS IS LIKELY
THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS MOIST NE FLOW CONTINUES...WITH UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION AND SFC LOW MOVING UP THE SE COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD PROBS OF IFR
STRATUS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AND
MON WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL BE DROPPING THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST RELEASE. THE TIGHTEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING
AS SFC LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING FOR THE REMAINING MARINE AREAS BUT
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE IMPROVING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CONFIDENCE DOES REMAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT WINDS/SEAS LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE THROUGH FRI WITH
NE SWELL ENERGY. THROUGH SAT NIGHT EXPECT WINDS PRED 15KT OR
LESS...WITH SEAS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE FRI FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS FRI THEN RETROGRADING BACK OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SCA LEVELS AGAIN
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL
OCEAN SIDE OF OBX NORTH OF HATTERAS AND OVER SRN PAMLICO SOUND SO
WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INTO THIS
EVENING. DECREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOWER WATERS LEVELS BY LATE
EVENING. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE 8 FT BREAKERS ACROSS NORTHERN
BEACHES AND THUS WILL CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TIL 8 PM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ093>095-103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-135-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC

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