Gale Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL JUST TO
THE SOUTH BY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND
PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BNDRY STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS WILL PUSH S AS
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...STALLING JUST S OF AREA BY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY AS ISENT LIFT
INCREASES IN WAKE OF FRONT AND AS DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM
SW. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND OF LOW CHC POPS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO CATEGORICALY BY LATE AFTN. ANOTHER DIFFICULT TEMP FCST
WITH BNDRY PUSHING S DURING THE DAY. NRN SECTIONS LIKELY TO SEE
LITTLE IF ANY WARMING DURING DAY...WITH HIGHS HELD TO LOWER 50S. SRN
SECTIONS MAY WARM TO MID 60S BEFORE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS LEADS TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL LOW TRACKING ACROSS JUST S OF AREA THIS
EVENING...INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES E-NE OF AREA OVERNIGHT. TYPICAL
MYRIAD FCST ISSUES FOR AREA LEADING TO MULTIPLE HAZARD PRODUCT
ISSUANCES. STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH UPR LOW CORE MOVING ACROSS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER CLIMO FAVORED
NW SECTIONS...GREENE-PITT-MARTIN COUTIES. WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE ENOUGH OF A QUICK BURST TO
PRODUCE 1/2 TO ONE INCH...AND POSTED ADVISORY PER COORD WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. REST OF AREA INLAND OF S COAST AND SRN OBX
COULD ALSO SEE RAIN MIX WITH SNOW OR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS THERE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF INCH. STORNG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG COAST AND WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR OUTER BANKS
AND CARTERET COUNTY. SEE BELOW FOR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NE COAST FRI. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO HAVE ENDED BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY
WINDS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRI. COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...LOW TEMPS LIKELY IN THE L/M20S FOR INLAND AREAS AND
L/M30S FOR THE OUTER BANKS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS
EXPECTED SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/U50S. THE FIRST IN SERIES
OF DRY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGES PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WILL BEGIN TO DROP TEMPS AND HIGHS MONDAY EXPECTED IN THE L/M50S
ANOTHER CLIPPER FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING
INTO THE M/U40S. A FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TROUGH
LATE WED. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WED AS GFS HAS STRONGER RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT IF
12Z ECMWF VERIFIES HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 IN SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KEWN AND
KOAJ PAST HOUR AND OBS INDICATE LOWERING CONDITIONS AT KPGV AND KISO
AS WELL. THUS EXPECT WDSPRD IFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z AND LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. CURRENT STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
FCST TO PUSH BACK S OF KOAJ BY 12Z AND REMAIN THERE REST OF PERIOD
WITH WIDESPRD RAIN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS S AND SE OF AREA.

LONG TERM /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD N TO S
ALONG COAST TODAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS AREA...AND LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM SW. LOW FCST TO TRACK JUST S OF AREA THIS
EVENING...AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES N-NE OF AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS
BLEND IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO
GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 6-8
FT BY THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...AND REACH 10-12 FT
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NE COAST FRIDAY. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 6-12FT FRI MORNING...HIGHEST NORTH OF HATTERAS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2-4FT. THEN THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
ARCTIC FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS SUN BRINGING INCREASING
W/NWLY FLOW AND COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA WINDS SUNDAY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MON NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 315 AM THU...THE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 12-18 HRS
TONIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES
FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND THAT ARE USUALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR CARTERET/OBX HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES FOR MINOR
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING...GENERALLY 1-3FT. MAINLY FROM DOWNEAST
CARTERET TO BUXTON/FRISCO AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE TO AREAS
VULNERABLE TO OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG OCEANSIDE OBX...SUCH AS THE
S-CURVES. LUCKILY WE ARE IN A RELATIVELY LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
CYCLE WITH A QUARTER MOON ON FRI. HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF FOR OBX
DARE...MAINLY NORTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135-156-158.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK/CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-171245-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
743 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IMPACTING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO
FRIDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. OCEAN OVERWASH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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