Alert archive / Oregon / Storm Warnings in 2013
Storm Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this storm warning at Sep 28, 2013, 3:00 AM PDT. It took effect at Sep 28, 2013, 11:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 35 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 28, 2013, 3:00 AM PDT (10:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 28, 2013, 11:00 AM PDT
- Expired
- Sep 29, 2013, 10:18 PM PDT
- In force
- 35 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
078 WHUS76 KMFR 281000 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 300 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013 .A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS MAY DECREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP WIND SEAS AND HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PZZ350-370-282300- /O.CON.KMFR.SI.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-130928T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SW.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-130928T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KMFR.GL.W.0032.130928T1800Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0002.130928T1800Z-130929T0600Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0030.130928T1800Z-131001T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SR.A.0001.130929T1800Z-130930T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 300 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY... ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING. * WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL RISE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS OF 55 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KTS WITH GUST TO 55 KTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SEAS: STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO INCREASING WIND WAVES AND BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON RISING TO 19 TO 22 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 FEET SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. && $$ PZZ356-376-282300- /O.EXT.KMFR.SI.Y.0091.130928T1200Z-130928T2100Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SW.Y.0091.130928T1200Z-130928T2100Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0030.130928T2100Z-131001T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.130928T2100Z-130930T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 300 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY... THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. * WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL RISE TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO GALES 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUST TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SEAS: STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASING WIND WAVES AND BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON RISING TO 14 TO 20 FEET THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING 19 TO 25 FEET. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ALL WATERS MAY AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. && $$ HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
5 follow-up statements
333 WHUS76 KMFR 282256 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 356 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013 .A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE INTO EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GALES IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP WIND SEAS AND HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PZZ350-370-291200- /O.EXT.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0300Z/ /O.CAN.KMFR.SR.A.0001.130929T1800Z-130930T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 356 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013 ...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY... ...STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE STORM WATCH. THE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS OF 55 KT CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KTS WITH GUST TO 55 KTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 19 TO 22 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 22 TO 26 FEET SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. && $$ PZZ356-376-291200- /O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 356 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTH GALES 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO GALES 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUST TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 14 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING 19 TO 25 FEET. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ALL WATERS MAY AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. && $$ HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
196 WHUS76 KMFR 291014 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 314 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 PZZ356-376-292315- /O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 314 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO GALES 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 15 TO 19 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING 19 TO 25 FEET DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP AND HIGH WIND WAVES AND HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELL. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 16 TO 20 FEET. * AREAS AFFECTED: ALL WATERS WILL AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. && $$ PZZ350-370-292315- /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 314 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KT LATE THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO STORM FORCE 40 TO 45 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 16 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING 21 TO 26 FEET DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP AND HIGH WIND WAVES AND HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELL. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 17 TO 22 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. && $$ HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
026 WHUS76 KMFR 291603 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 903 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 PZZ356-376-300000- /O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 903 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO GALES 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ PZZ350-370-300000- /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 903 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST RISING TO GALES 35 TO 45 KT LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO STORM 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. && $$ HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
837 WHUS76 KMFR 292143 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 243 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 PZZ350-370-301045- /O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 243 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTH STORM 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 20 TO 25 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. && $$ PZZ356-376-301045- /O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 243 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO GALES 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT... HOWEVER VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
590 WHUS76 KMFR 300518 AAA MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 PZZ376-301830- /O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0092.130930T0518Z-130930T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/ WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT EASING BELOW 20 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. * SEAS: STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 16 TO 22 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ PZZ356-301830- /O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0092.130930T0518Z-130930T1000Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM- 1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT EASING BELOW 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. * SEAS: STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ PZZ350-370-301830- /O.CAN.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0092.130930T0518Z-131001T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0600Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM- 1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY. * WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT EASING BELOW 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING. * SEAS: STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT BUT LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 18 TO 24 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SPILDE HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Sep 27, 9:59 PM PDT, 5 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 27, 9:59 PM PDT, 5 hours 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
959 PM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON PABUK ARE POISED TO DELIVER
VERY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE APPROACHING STORM...THE
EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS MINOR. I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I ALSO INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT DID NOT
ALREADY HAVE A 100% POP.
A MAJORITY OF MY TIME THIS EVENING WAS SPENT EXAMINING THE WIND
FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE ONE-TWO PUNCH
HEADED OUR WAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN HEADED TO THE
COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO FRONTS WILL BE SIMILARLY
STRONG, BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN WIND INTENSITY AND ALSO
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER (PER THE GFS) OR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE FIRST (PER THE
NAM). AS SUCH...I HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT SHORT-TERM WIND
FORECAST. THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS WILL BE AROUND PORT ORFORD
AND CAPE BLANCO...EXTENDING NORTHWARD. A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS FOR
THE NEXT SHIFT TO ANSWER WITH THE NEXT REGULAR ISSUANCE OF THE
FORECAST ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO
THE SOUTH COAST ZONE 22 FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE AREA WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEYS DRY. EARLY SUNDAY, THE
FIRST FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA AND THE
SECOND FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ON ITS HEELS...CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE/CASCADES.
HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND THE
UMPQUA BASIN TO THE CASCADES WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND PARTIAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME VERY STRONG
ALONG THE COAST AND THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF TURBULENCE. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013/
SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE AND POINTING TO A VERY
RARE LATE SEPTEMBER RAIN/WIND STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANTIME,
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE/CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AS WAS STATED IN THIS MORNINGS AFD, THIS WILL PALE IN
COMPARISON TO WHAT IS SETTING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND A FAST 180 KT JET WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TAKING
DEAD AIM ON OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH ONE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY AND ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN, ANOTHER FAST-MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY. THIS ONE-TWO
PUNCH WILL RESULT IN RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST OF 3-6 INCHES
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES OVER SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL
STREAMS, CREEKS AND RIVERS AND WE HAVE OUTLINED THIS IN A FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (ESFMFR). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RIVERS ARE
STARTING OFF AT VERY LOW LEVELS AND SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS A NON-
FACTOR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO, MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BUT, IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY THAT WE'LL SEE SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND
CREEKS REACH OR EXCEED THEIR BANKS. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH (FFAMFR) FOR THE WILDFIRE BURN SCAR AREAS (BIG WINDY,
LABRADOR, FORKS, DOUGLAS AND WHISKEY COMPLEXES) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS/MUDSLIDES AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL 700MB WINDS HAVE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY...
INCREASING TO 65-70 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN PEAKING AT 75-80 KTS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SUB 975MB LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH
END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
MFR-RDD IS AROUND -8.0MB. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INCREASED WINDS
ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND A WIDE RANGE OF WIND
HEADLINES (NPWMFR) HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
LINGER BEHIND IT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOIST WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
SPILDE
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE INDECISIVENESS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS WITHIN
THE SAME MODEL.
THE 27/12Z GFS GOES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
MEDFORD CWA. MEANWHILE...THE EC GOES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE.
WITH THE GFS SCENARIO...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
TUESDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTH COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA
BASIN. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH COAST AS THE SOUTHERN
END OF A FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE EC SCENARIO STARTS OFF SLIGHT WETTER WITH THE POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THEN
IT GOES DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
THE ENSEMBLES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAIRLY WELL PACKED...BUT
SIGNIFICANT PHASE SHIFTS BETWEEN SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST MEMBERS...THE MEANS...AND THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW A TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED TO FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SO...MOST SIGNS POINT TOWARD COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. STOCKTON
MARINE...STRONG WINDS AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A COASTAL JET
DEVELOPING FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH WHICH LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TEMPORALLY DECREASING.
THE GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NEAR 48N/130W AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE MODELS SUGGEST STORM FORCE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A 4-6 HOUR
PERIOD IN WHICH OCCASIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PZZ370 AND PZZ350. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD HEAVY SWELL INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH STEEP WIN DRIVEN SEAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CHAOTIC SEAS SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ029>031.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ORZ023>025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ023-025-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ORZ021.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ080.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM TO
2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
DWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 3:00 AM PDT | Storm Watch | MFR | 13 hr | |
| Sep 28, 3:25 AM PDT | High Wind Watch | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 13 hr |
| Sep 28, 4:00 AM PDT | High Surf Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 61 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.