Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
248 PM PDT MON MAY 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF A CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING AN INCH ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...ARE BEING OBSERVED
VIA SATELLITE-DERIVED PRODUCTS. THE MORNING BALLOON SOUNDING
FEATURED 0.84 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH ABOUT 10KT OF STORM MOTION. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE AND INITIATE OVER THE
CASCADES SHORTLY...THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE ROGUE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS
A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE STORMS. TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOMORROW...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD SOME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLIDES INTO NEVADA AND UTAH.
THUS...THE FORECAST FOCUSES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES TOMORROW. DESPITE THE LOW CONTINUING TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
AND SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH AGAIN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES...BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR FRIDAY. A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER WITH THIS FRONT
AND RAIN COULD REACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
SPREADING INLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE...CASCADES...AND PART OF SISKIYOU COUNTY
NOW...AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WINDS CAN BE ERRATIC AND VERY
GUSTY. THE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS HAVE DIED DOWN. THIS COULD LEAD
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ083>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

NSK/NSK/NSK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 PM PDT MON MAY 6 2013

CAZ081-083-084-ORZ028-029-062315-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY CA-KLAMATH BASIN OR-NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY CA-NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC
COUNTIES CA-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES OR-
329 PM PDT MON MAY 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM PDT...

AT 322 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DORRIS...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KLAMATH
FALLS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KLAMATH RIVER CAMPGROUND...
MACDOEL AND JUANITA LAKE CAMPGROUND.

LAT...LON 4164 12195 4189 12247 4210 12199 4203 12176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 050DEG 24KT 4197 12195

WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
507 PM PDT MON MAY 6 2013

ORZ027>030-070045-
KLAMATH BASIN OR-NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE
COUNTY OR-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES OR-SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OR-
507 PM PDT MON MAY 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KLAMATH AND EXTREME
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM PDT...

AT 505 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CRATER LAKE LODGE TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON F. KIMBALL STATE
PARK TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILOQUIN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CRATER LAKE...COLLIER
MEMORIAL STATE PARK...CHILOQUIN...MODOC POINT...JACKSON F. KIMBALL
STATE PARK...HENZEL PARK AT AGENCY LAKE...WOOD RIVER WETLAND...FORT
KLAMATH...AND MOUNT MCLOUGHLIN TRAILHEAD.

LAT...LON 4317 12178 4283 12179 4242 12173 4223 12227
      4258 12227 4305 12226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 050DEG 15KT 4298 12203 4277 12189
          4251 12182

WRIGHT