Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Medford, OR

778 
WWUS86 KMFR 251130
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
430 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ORZ623>625-252300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0600Z/
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-
WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
430 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 623...624 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623...624 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

* TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY TIME THROUGH THIS
  EVENING...HOWEVER THE GREATEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
  MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL...THE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY WET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
  CASCADES. THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WITH STORMS EXTENDS EAST
  OF THE CASCADES BUT SOME STORMS MAY BE DRIER, ESPECIALLY IN ZONE
  625. 

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-284-ORZ621-252300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0000Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-
430 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 280...281... 284 AND 621...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...284 AND 621.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...
  ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 

* TIMING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING INTO
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL...THE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY WET.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

ORZ620-622-252300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0000Z/
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
430 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 620 AND 622...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622 AND 620.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS
  AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. 

* RAINFALL...THE STORMS WILL BE WET...AND A WETTING RAIN IS
  POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SHOWERS MIX WITH
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

497 
WWUS86 KMFR 252143
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ORZ623>625-260600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0600Z/
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-
WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
243 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 623...624 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623...624 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

* TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
  THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS MOVES INTO NORTHERN OREGON.
  HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE
  POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL...A WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY UNDER MOST STORMS.  

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-284-ORZ621-260000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0000Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-
243 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 280...281... 284 AND 621...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...284 AND 621.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
  REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
  THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL...THE STORMS WILL BE WET.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

ORZ620-622-260000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0000Z/
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
243 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 620 AND 622...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622 AND 620.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
  REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA
  THIS EVENING.  

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

* RAINFALL...THE STORMS WILL BE WET.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

480 
WWUS86 KMFR 260040
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
540 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ORZ623>625-260600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0600Z/
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-
WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
540 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 623...624 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623...624 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

* TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
  A THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS MOVES INTO NORTHERN OREGON. 
  HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL...A WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY UNDER MOST STORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS MAY PRODUCE NEW 
  FIRE STARTS. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD CAUSE NEW FIRES TO SPREAD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

489 
WWUS86 KMFR 260352
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013


ORZ623>625-260500-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130826T0600Z/
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-
WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
852 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH
DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623...624 AND 625...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 623...624 AND 625.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL BOLT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING...MOSTLY FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION AND ALONG
THE CASCADES NORTHWARD.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR 

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE TROUGH DEEPENING
NEAR 130W. WEAK INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN NORTHERN CAL AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC
LIGHTNING PROGS SHOW THE NOCTURNAL POTENTIAL ON THE WEST SIDE AND
ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE AND WERE
ALREADY GETTING SOME CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE THINKING IS WERE
GETTING HEATING NOW AND THIS COULD GET TRAPPED AS THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES TONIGHT GIVING THE INCOMING DYNAMICS SOMETHING TO WORK
WITH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY RESULTING IN A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE ENOUGH WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY
TO THE POINT WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WE'LL HAVE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
INCOMING DYNAMICS, COULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...PARTS OF THE EAST SIDE (NOTABLY NORTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES) AND NORTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

ANOTHER CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH BURN SCARS IS PRECIPITATION. THE
EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
CASCADES...WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE. PWAT
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS EVENT. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET DECENT RAINFALL. QPF VALUES OF
0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADES...SISKIYOUS AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS AND 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH WEST OF THE CASCADES...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH SUNDAY EVENING AND
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABLE.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRUSH BY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OF NOTE THE EC AND GFS BEGINS TO DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. ON
THE FLIP SIDE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE...SLOWLY MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST AND EVOLVING INTO AND UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD BE
DELAYED FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL AROUND
6Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR AND LOCAL IFR. THE WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD DELAY OR EVEN PREVENT MVFR CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING AT
ROSEBURG. KRBG TAF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR
     ORZ027-030-031.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ025-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR
     ORZ024.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR
     ORZ026-028.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080-081-083-084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.