High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PST WED FEB 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO OUR
AREA TODAY WILL LEAD TO DRYING BY NOON. HOWEVER THIS DRYING IS
SHORT LIVED AS A STRONGER FRONT AND TROUGH BRINGS RAIN TO THE
COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE RAIN
TO CURRY COUNTY AND THE COAST RANGE AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 3000 FEET BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
KALMIOPSIS ABOVE 3000 FEET. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AROUND 2500 FEET....BUT
COULD TEMPORALLY LOWER TO 2000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -35C AT H500 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL ZONES ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH IN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM THE NORTH, EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL TURN COLDER ESPECIALLY IN CLEARING
AREAS.

THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES THE TREND OF BUILDING A RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER, THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. TO THE EAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT COLD AIR SEEPING INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
THIS COULD VERY COLD NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES,ESPECIALLY IN LAKE
COUNTY. HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD IN THE EXTENDED
BUT OTHERWISE KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY  AND THERE STILL MAY BE ISOLATED -SHRA ALONG THE
COAST OR OVER THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT VFR IN MOST AREAS,
THOUGH CIGS MAY BE LOCALLY MVFR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION. A DEEP MOIST LAYER AND SOME
MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT LOCAL
IFR FOG CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE. ALL AREAS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY MID-LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z WITH -RA/RA MOVING ONSHORE. SOUTH WINDS
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

FJB/FJB/BTL