Gale Warning 32, NWS Medford, OR

078 
WHUS76 KMFR 281000
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013


.A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AREA TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WINDS MAY DECREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE  SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BECOME VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP WIND SEAS AND HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL.

PZZ350-370-282300-
/O.CON.KMFR.SI.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-130928T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SW.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-130928T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.GL.W.0032.130928T1800Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0002.130928T1800Z-130929T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0030.130928T1800Z-131001T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SR.A.0001.130929T1800Z-130930T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
300 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
PDT THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING. A STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY. THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 AM PDT THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
  GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL
  RISE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS OF 55 KT
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY
  SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40
  TO 45 KTS WITH GUST TO 55 KTS ARE LIKELY  SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

* SEAS: STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS MORNING
  WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
  INCREASING WIND WAVES AND BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.
  VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS
  AFTERNOON RISING TO 19 TO 22 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
  LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 FEET SUNDAY
  INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
  VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

$$

PZZ356-376-282300-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SI.Y.0091.130928T1200Z-130928T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SW.Y.0091.130928T1200Z-130928T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0030.130928T2100Z-131001T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.130928T2100Z-130930T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
300 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT SUNDAY...

THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. 


* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL RISE TO
  GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BRIEFLY LATE
  TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
  AGAIN TO GALES 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUST TO 50 KTS SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SEAS: STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET THIS MORNING
  WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO
  INCREASING WIND WAVES AND BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.
  VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS
  AFTERNOON RISING TO 14 TO 20 FEET THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
  WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING REACHING 19 TO 25 FEET. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH
  SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS ARE
  EXPECTED NORTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ALL WATERS
  MAY AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS BEGINNING SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

333 
WHUS76 KMFR 282256
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
356 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE
WINDS CONTINUE INTO EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCA WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GALES
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP WIND SEAS AND HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL.

PZZ350-370-291200-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0300Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SR.A.0001.130929T1800Z-130930T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
356 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE STORM
WATCH. THE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY.
A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY.


* WINDS: STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS OF 55 KT
  CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO
  EARLY SUNDAY...THEN STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KTS WITH GUST
  TO 55 KTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 19 TO 22 FT THROUGH
  THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
  AGAIN TO 22 TO 26 FEET SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND WAVES
  WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH MONDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

PZZ356-376-291200-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
356 PM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH GALES 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT INTO THIS
  EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BRIEFLY LATE
  TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO
  GALES 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUST TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 14 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
  WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING REACHING 19 TO 25 FEET. WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH
  SUNDAY NIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS ARE 
  EXPECTED NORTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ALL 
  WATERS MAY AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS BEGINNING 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

196 
WHUS76 KMFR 291014
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013


PZZ356-376-292315-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
314 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RISE
  TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
  AGAIN TO GALES 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 15 TO 19 FEET ARE EXPECTED
  THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING REACHING 19 TO 25 FEET DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP
  AND HIGH WIND WAVES AND HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELL. WIND WAVES WILL
  DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
  WITH SEAS AROUND 16 TO 20 FEET.

* AREAS AFFECTED: ALL WATERS WILL AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND
  HEAVY SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...HIGHEST SEAS ARE
  EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

PZZ350-370-292315-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
314 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
  INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KT LATE THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS ARE
  EXPECTED TO RISE TO STORM FORCE 40 TO 45 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 55
  KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE LATE
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS OF 16 TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED
  THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING...REACHING 21 TO 26 FEET DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERY
  STEEP AND HIGH WIND WAVES AND HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELL. WIND WAVES
  WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT VERY HEAVY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ON
  MONDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 17 TO 22 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

026 
WHUS76 KMFR 291603
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
903 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

PZZ356-376-300000-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
903 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO GALES
  35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND
  WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET THIS
  MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AS WIND WAVES INCREASE. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
  TONIGHT...HOWEVER VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ350-370-300000-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
903 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST RISING TO GALES 35 TO 45 KT LATE
  MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO STORM 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
  KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND
  WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET THIS
  MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AS WIND WAVES INCREASE. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
  TONIGHT...HOWEVER VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  MONDAY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

837 
WHUS76 KMFR 292143
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

PZZ350-370-301045-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
243 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT
MONDAY. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH STORM 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT BY EARLY
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND
  WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 20 TO 25 FEET THIS
  AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY
  STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

PZZ356-376-301045-
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
243 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 
  GALES 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

* SEAS: VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND 
  WAVES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THIS 
  AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE. WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE 
  TONIGHT... HOWEVER VERY STEEP WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

590 
WHUS76 KMFR 300518 AAA
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

PZZ376-301830-
/O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0092.130930T0518Z-130930T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT
MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY.
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT EASING BELOW 20 KT MONDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* SEAS: STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT LARGE LONG
  PERIOD WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 16 TO 22 FEET
  THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ356-301830-
/O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0092.130930T0518Z-130930T1000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT
MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY.
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT EASING BELOW 20 KT EARLY THIS
  MORNING. 

* SEAS: STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT LARGE LONG
  PERIOD WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET
  THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ350-370-301830-
/O.CAN.KMFR.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130930T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0092.130930T0518Z-131001T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0030.000000T0000Z-131001T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
1018 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT
MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY.
THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY. 

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT EASING BELOW 20 KT BY
  MONDAY EVENING.

* SEAS: STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT BUT
  LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 18 TO 24
  FEET THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SPILDE

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 AM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY THIS MORNING. IT WAS THE
COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR FOR MANY AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S HERE AT THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. SAW EVIDENCE OF FROST
IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE DRIVE IN THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE THOUGH...AND CHANGE
ABRUPTLY THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG PACIFIC JET CARRIES A STRONG
EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS STORM IS ALREADY
HAVING ITS EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE
WILL GET A PUSH EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. BUT THIS WILL PALE IN
COMPARISON FOR WHAT'S TO COME THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF POTENT
FRONTS WILL HAVE ENERGY/MOISTURE ADDED FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TYPHOON
PABUK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST SATURDAY, THEN MOVE
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND IT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
HEAVY RAIN/WIND. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WET SEASON WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AT THE
COAST...SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES AND ALSO STRONG WINDS AT
THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE. WE WON'T HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH, EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH UP ABOVE 8500 FEET.
COORDINATION WITH THE NWRFC THIS MORNING INDICATES WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES (5-6 FEET) AND MODERATE TO HIGH FLOWS OF
AREA STREAMS/CREEKS/DRAINAGES ALONG THE COAST/JUST INLAND. BUT
MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THEIR BANKS SINCE THEY ARE
STARTING OUT LOW AND THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH/IF ANY SNOW TO MELT
TO RESULT IN ADDED RUNOFF. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES THROUGH SOME OF STEEPER TERRAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND AREAS BURNED FROM THE WILDFIRES THIS SUMMER. BY THE
TIME THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, THIS COULD BE A RECORD
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOME AREAS.

FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY UPGRADING THE WIND WATCHES WE CURRENTLY HAVE
OUT. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS/FOG EXPECTED IN OTHER WESTERN
VALLEYS AND IN THE KLAMATH BASIN.  ALSO AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
PRESENT IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
TO VFR AROUND 16Z THIS MORNING. THEN VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 22-02Z AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
ALONG THE COAST AND IN UMPQUA DURING THE EVENING. CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...
IN SUMMARY, TRANQUIL AUTUMN WEATHER TODAY WILL TURN UNUSUALLY
STORMY DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEKEND, WITH EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PER
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY
MEET OR EXCEED WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THUS FAR THIS MONTH IN
MOST AREAS FROM THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN AND CASCADES WESTWARD. THE
VALUES OBSERVED THUS FAR THIS MONTH ARE ALREADY THE HIGHEST VALUES
SEEN FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER SINCE THE LATTER HALF OF THE
1980S. THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH FLOWS IN AREA
DRAINAGE DITCHES, STREAMS, CREEKS, AND RIVERS IS HIGH. AT THE
CURRENT TIME NO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

THAT BEING SAID, COOL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
COLDER, WITH THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MID-30S IN THE SHASTA VALLEY TO
MOUNT SHASTA CITY AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. IN THE
BEAR CREEK PORTION OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER
SOUTHEAST OF MEDFORD IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STEADY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK PRETTY MUCH
RIGHT ON TRACK, SO SUSPECT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
FOR OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3-4 DAYS HAVE MADE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE! THE
REMNANTS OF WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON PABUK ARE RAPIDLY SPREADING
FROM NORTHERN JAPAN AND KAMCHATKA ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALEUTIANS
AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST IS ALREADY GETTING A FORWARD
BOOST FROM THE JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
TYPHOON. THE GFS40 MODEL IS THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PUSHING IT INTO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. I HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR TODAY, AS THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS BACKED, IN
PART, BY OTHER GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE CORE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
WILL TAKE AIM ON VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THEN WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT OVERRUNNING ALONG
THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. EXPECT 6 HOUR AMOUNTS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS MEANS STORM TOTALS THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 4 TO
12 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS IS A LARGE SPREAD, BUT REALISTIC
FOR THIS TYPE OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO HONE IN ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS TOTALS SUCH AS THESE COULD PUSH SOME
WATERWAYS CLOSE TO BANK FULL. EXPECT COORDINATION WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER TO BE NECESSARY TODAY. NAEFS DATA SUGGESTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS EVENT TO BE AROUND 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A RETURN INTERVAL OF 5 TO 10
YEARS. THE GEFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, PUTS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
RETURN INTERVAL FOR THIS EVENT FOR OUR AREA AT MORE LIKE ONCE
EVERY 30 YEARS FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE 3 HOUR PERIODS! SAID ANOTHER
WAY, THE MEX AND ECX BULLETINS FOR MEDFORD ARE INDICATING STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE, WHICH ALONE WOULD SURPASS
SEPTEMBER TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL BACK TO THE LATE 1980S.

ANOTHER NOTABLE ANOMALY THAT SHOWS UP ON THE NAEFS IS 700MB WINDS
ON THE EAST SIDE REACHING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
CENTERED IN THE 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY TIME FRAME. IN SOME
AREAS, THOSE SORT OF VALUES HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PERIOD OF COMPARISON. DECIDED TO ISSUE
SOME WIND HEADLINES THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMUM LEAD TIME, AS
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
OTHER AREAS AND THAT WORK LOAD PRIOR TO THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD WILL BE HIGH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE COAST, THE WETTER GFS40 AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS BECAUSE,
FOR EVENTS SUCH AS THESE, THE HIGHER END VALUES TEND TO HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THAT BEING SAID, THE NAM12 DOES SHOW
LESSER AMOUNTS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA IS FORECAST BY IT TO BE HERE FOR SHORTER DURATION AND WITH A
BIT LESS INTENSITY.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SENDING
THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD, SNOW LEVELS
DOWNWARD, AND PUTTING US UNDER A SHOWERY NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS, A
BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM OUR SEPTEMBER PRECIPITATION ONSLAUGHT IS
EXPECTED. BTL

AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE.

WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL, BUT LESS LIKELY. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY, LEAVING VFR. WE WILL SEE
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE NORTH COAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TOWARD DAY'S END AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029.

CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081-082.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081-082.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

MAS/BTL/CMC