Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
326 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS...

.DISCUSSION...STREET FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW HIGH
TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE BAY AND INTRACOASTAL SIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS THIS MID EVENING AND MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY. THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS (WITH DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1/2-3/4
FT ABOVE NORMAL) ARE OCCURRING WITH THE "SPRING TIDE" (AN
ASTRONOMICAL EVENT WHEN THE MOON AND SUN ALIGN WITH THE EARTH).
THE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. AGAIN, THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
ADDRESSING THIS FLOODING.

THE TIDES ARE THE MAIN "WEATHER" STORY AS TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY
INCREASE SO JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. /GREGORIA

LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR OR ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP A EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A 10 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN GET PUSHED DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEK, AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. /BNB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND PRIMARILY DOMINATED MAINLY BY
LAND/SEA BREEZES. /AK

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  87  74  87 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  77  87 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI            75  87  76  87 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES           71  89  71  88 / -  -  -  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
459 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
181200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
459 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG ATLANTIC COAST, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING: HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MINOR INUNDATION
OF LOW-LYING AND AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. BAYSIDE PORTIONS OF MIAMI BEACH WILL BE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT TIDAL FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

KONARIK

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