Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STRETCHES WEST TO
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MID LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND CANADA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE IS LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS HAS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THAT REGION WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
WHICH IN TURN IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS REGARDS TO THE AVAILABLE CAPE BUT SO FAR THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY
UNSTABLE HOWEVER AND THIS AIDED IN AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION
PROCESS WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST IN THE
MID LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SO AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
GROW, THE INTERIOR COULD GET QUITE ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STORM MOTION BECOMES LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE WAVE BEING FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BECOME SHALLOWER SO STORM MOTION WILL GO EVEN LIGHTER AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT FOCUSING MECHANISM. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND THIS COULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVEN FURTHER WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AGAIN
BEING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THIS SAME TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STORM MOTION 2 MPH OR LESS. A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY THURSDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR A SLOW
RETURN TO STORM MOTION STEERING STORMS BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER ARE NOT SHOWING A STRONG MOTION SO THE
ENTIRE WEEK LOOKS AS IF VERY SLOW STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHERE EVER THE CONVECTION CAN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM INLAND OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZES AND
ARE CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING ANY OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD FORM QUICKLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS. THAT COUPLED WITH ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CAN ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AT
SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  76  88 / 40 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  89  79  89 / 40 40 20 20
MIAMI            77  90  77  88 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES           76  91  75  89 / 30 50 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

FLZ063-066-202000-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HENDRY AND
SOUTHWESTERN GLADES COUNTIES...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF LEHIGH ACRES TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HENDRY
  CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  KERI...
  LA BELLE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2661 8092 2626 8117 2653 8126 2660 8157
      2698 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 206DEG 11KT 2668 8153 2641 8115

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

FLZ063-066-202100-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
354 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN GLADES
COUNTY AND HENDRY COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF DEVILS GARDEN TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIG CYPRESS
  SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  DEVILS GARDEN...
  ORTONA...
  MONTURA...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2701 8139 2669 8093 2629 8108 2665 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 176DEG 10KT 2666 8124 2643 8108

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

FLZ067-202045-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI...AND
  MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
  RURAL NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2696 8031 2665 8045 2667 8058 2687 8064
      2689 8062 2695 8062 2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 187DEG 9KT 2671 8051

KONARIK