Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AFTER A BUSY START EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN A FEW HOURS BY OR
AROUND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOW
INLAND AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND ALONG THE GULF COAST NORTH OF
NAPLES. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
GENERALLY INDICATE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THESE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS.
VERY WEAK FLOW DEPICTED IN THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION AND MAY TRANSLATE TO FLOODING IN
THE AREAS WHERE THE RAINFALL BECOMES CONCENTRATED. WMSI VALUES FROM
THE MORNING SOUNDING AND THE GFS/NAM/WRF ARW...WHICH ARE BASED ON
MID/SFC THETA-E DIFFERENCES AND SB-CAPE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
SPATIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN RAIN-COOLED
AIR AT THE SURFACE...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
EACH NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND INTERIOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE
FORECAST TO NEAR THE 2" MARK BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WAVE WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE PENINSULA BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT
ONCE AGAIN SPREADING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALSO REBUILD BACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH A BIT LESS OF
INSTABILITY ALSO IN PLACE AND POPS WILL DROP BACK A LITTLE BELOW THE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

30/KOB

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. MOST OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO LATE EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
FOR NOW HAS KEPT VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS SINCE THERE IS A LAYER OF
DRY AIR VISIBLE FROM THE SOUNDING AROUND 700MB. THIS COULD SLOW DOWN
THE FORMATION OF CONVECTION. BY THE TIME THAT CONVECTION FORMS IT
MAY FOCUS MORE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WHICH WOULD HAVE ALREADY PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY TRANSLATE TO BETTER
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZES PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  78  88 / 20 20 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  80  88 / 20 20 20 50
MIAMI            79  89  79  88 / 20 20 20 50
NAPLES           74  93  73  91 / 20 30 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
LONG TERM...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
210945-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
242 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF COLLIER COUNTY AS WELL AS GLADES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL DAILY OCCURRENCES OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
321 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

FLZ063-066-067-202000-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
321 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN GLADES COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY...
FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55
MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEWISTON...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10
  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  CLEWISTON...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2682 8095 2680 8095 2677 8094 2676 8090
      2675 8089 2674 8085 2673 8084 2669 8097
      2680 8108 2683 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 146DEG 9KT 2675 8094

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