Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, ACTIVE AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
EVERGLADES GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN CLOUDY BUT
LIKELY ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN. WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PULSE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF SEASONABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LOCALLY STRONG AFTERNOON TSTMS ONCE
AGAIN. ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM TODAY IS THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE
MORE OUT OF THE W/SW DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. MOST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH METRO, WITH LESSER
COVERAGE ALONG THE GULF COAST.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEEP LAYERED W/NW FLOW
RESULTING IN DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE AREA. IN FACT,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS FRIDAY WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST AT 20
PERCENT, FAVORING INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. IT WILL ALSO BE HOT ON
FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE GULF COAST WHERE THE GULF BREEZE
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE AS
IT REACHES THE LAKE AREA, WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND THE LAKE AREA. THEREFORE WILL BUMP POPS BACK UP TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE AND KEEP THE 20 POPS
ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS TO
FLORIDA WITH FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DEPICT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, POSSIBLY
ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR PENINSULA. THE CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS IS LESSENED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH TERMINAL KAPF HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ALL TERMINALS
HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED VCTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EASTERLY FLOW
RETURNS WITH WINDS POSSIBLY AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FT
IN THE WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS NORTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF
TROPICAL WAVE SKIRTS THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, LOWEST
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  73  92 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  89  76  91 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI            76  90  76  91 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES           75  88  76  88 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/FIRE...60/BD
RADAR...........54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
130115-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
915 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...STRONG WITH EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY.

HAIL: HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY.

FLOODING: AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING FROM ANY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

HEAT INDICES EACH DAY MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

FLZ067-068-121915-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
209 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
FROM 45 T 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI TO 4 MILES EAST OF MICCOSUKEE
  SERVICE PLAZA...AND MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
  OKEELANTA...
  BELLE GLADE...
  CANAL POINT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2633 8043 2633 8083 2687 8064 2689 8062
      2696 8060 2696 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 102DEG 5KT 2679 8042 2615 8079

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

FLZ069-070-121930-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
234 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COLLIER COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELLE MEADE...AND MOVING
  SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  FIDDLERS CREEK...
  ROOKERY BAY AQUATIC PRESERVE...
  ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK...
  MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2617 8174 2616 8150 2588 8150 2587 8153
      2589 8155 2589 8159 2590 8162 2589 8164
      2590 8165 2589 8168 2587 8166 2584 8168
      2592 8174 2599 8176 2609 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 014DEG 7KT 2608 8163

BAXTER

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