Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LARGE CUT-OFF MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND HAS MOVED EAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AS OF 1830Z WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION IS ALSO CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING SO
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
THE SOUTHERN CUT-OFF LOW BECOMING PHASED IN WITH THIS LOW. THIS
KEEPS SOUTH FLORIDA IN RICH TROPICAL FLOW OF AIR THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH
PWAT REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY AND A WEAK WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOW THE LOW
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING PHASED IN WITH THE
UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH. THIS ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED A TEMPERATURE OF -10 CELSIUS AND THE
GFS SHOWS COOLING TO AROUND -12 ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. OF
COURSE THERE WILL ALWAYS BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH. BOTH CUT THIS LOW OFF FROM THE NORTHERN
LATITUDE FLOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS A MASSIVE
CUT-OFF LOW AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS IT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD TEND TO DRAW A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LESSER STORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SPLITS THE
CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD
KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA VERY UNSTABLE. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION AS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN ITS FORECAST
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS HAD DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH EACH RUN.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FEET OVER THE PALM BEACH WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  81 / 60 70 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  81  71  82 / 60 70 50 60
MIAMI            75  81  71  83 / 60 70 50 60
NAPLES           68  85  67  83 / 60 50 40 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1049 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020600-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1049 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF A LARGE AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS FROM SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
APPROACH 60 MPH IN THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.

HAIL: HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...AND COULD
BE ALSO LARGE AS QUARTER-SIZED IN THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.

TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTERACT WITH SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH A SMALL SWELL (MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY) WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE AND/OR LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BEFORE
A MORE DEFINITE DRYING TREND BEGINS AGAIN. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR A FEW STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
HOW CONDITIONS UNFOLD. HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

KONARIK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

FLZ063-066-011900-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
223 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GLADES COUNTY...EASTERN HENDRY COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEVILS GARDEN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MONTURA...
  LAKE HICPOCHEE...
  MOORE HAVEN...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2693 8110 2689 8111 2688 8109 2685 8109
      2682 8105 2681 8095 2638 8108 2657 8134
      2699 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 183DEG 22KT 2662 8117

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

FLZ071>073-011915-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL
231 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN BROWARD
COUNTY...NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY
  AND MIAMI CANAL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2598 8080 2621 8086 2625 8062 2615 8042
      2596 8048 2583 8056 2586 8076
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 185DEG 16KT 2597 8065

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
304 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

FLZ063-066-067-011945-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
304 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN GLADES COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY...
FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF DEVILS GARDEN TO 8 MILES WEST OF SOUTH BAY TO 6 MILES
  EAST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  OKEELANTA...
  LAKE HARBOR...
  HARLEM...
  CLEWISTON...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2641 8058 2639 8069 2660 8091 2663 8121
      2680 8095 2677 8094 2674 8085 2671 8081
      2671 8078 2669 8074 2672 8073 2677 8075
      2678 8073 2675 8071 2680 8070 2679 8063
      2652 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 234DEG 15KT 2668 8104 2665 8083
          2647 8062

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
313 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

FLZ067-071-012000-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
313 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR
  ALLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2631 8074 2660 8060 2649 8025 2620 8040
      2611 8050 2618 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 204DEG 19KT 2628 8055

SI