Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A BREEZY...WARM AND HUMID DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN HERE
AND THERE. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HEATING IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ATTM ARE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MEANWHILE COMPLEXES OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND TO THE NORTH
APPROACHING THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI ARE MORE ORGANIZED AND
SUPPORTED BY THE BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NE
AR/MO BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD
INSTABILITY...SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6C
TO -8C ...COMBINED WITH SOME STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCD WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30KTS...WILL SUPPORT OF FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER NE AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF MIDSOUTH
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS PUSHING INTO THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL BE MILD
AGAIN...AROUND 70.

FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LEFT OVER IN THE
MORNING ACROSS NE WEST TN. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AS UPPER
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AND
MILD. MEANWHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROF WHICH BEGINS TO MOVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INTO NW PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL/NW TN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL
RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH SOME REALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. COULD SEE LOWS BACK
IN THE 50S ACROSS MANY PLACES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A
WARMER...MORE HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR VISBY OBSTRUCTIONS CAUSED BY HEAVY RAIN FROM
CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE MID-SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH..SUSTAINED 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-26 KTS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-14 KTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AC3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  89  74  86 /  40  20  20  40
MKL  70  87  72  84 /  40  30  20  40
JBR  70  86  72  82 /  70  20  50  60
TUP  70  89  71  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-312300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
355 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE THREATS FROM ANY STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE.

IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

SJM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ008-017-018-026-302115-
CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
338 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 45 MPH
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF EGYPT AT 338 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOXIE AND WALNUT RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9093 3615 9071 3577 9094 3582 9104
      3588 9104 3588 9106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 201DEG 31KT 3588 9099

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TNZ053-054-302130-
CHESTER TN-HENDERSON TN-
358 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF REAGAN AT 358 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER AND HENDERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
LEXINGTON...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST AND NATCHEZ TRACE STATE
PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BEECH LAKE...PIN OAK LAKE AND PINE LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8819 3554 8823 3553 8824 3542 8825
      3542 8847 3582 8856 3582 8818 3581 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 162DEG 26KT 3553 8831

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

MSZ021-022-302145-
YALOBUSHA MS-CALHOUN MS-
413 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF SABOUGLA AT 413 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK AND WATER VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8952 3386 8952 3386 8969 3386 8977
      3389 8978 3389 8992 3417 8993 3416 8932
      3372 8933 3372 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 180DEG 30KT 3382 8955