Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW THROUGH LITTLE ROCK...MEMPHIS...AND CORINTH
MISSISSIPPI. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH MIDDLE 70S OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR THE MO/KY/AR BORDER AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DOWN TO WYNNE ARKANSAS...AND JACKSON/SAVANNAH
TENNESSEE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT SHEAR/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...OVERALL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN IDEAL WITH THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/
RESIDING DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WATER VALLEY TO
ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
LARGE HAIL AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS. HOWEVER...NOT
ANTICIPATING A MUCH GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CURRENT
SHORT TERM TRENDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING UP TO 1.6
INCHES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN FREE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. LONG TERM MODELS STILL SUGGEST A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/S TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. KEPT LOWER CONFIDENCE POPS GOING THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME
UNTIL THE DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF
LARGE SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTED SURGED NORTH THROUGH NORTH MS...AND
LIFTED THROUGH MEM AROUND 1730Z. THIS FRONT REPRESENTED THE
LEADING EDGE OF MORE HUMID GULF AIR...WHICH WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO MO.
EXPECT BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL TO SHIFT EAST OF MEM BY 01Z.

POST COLD FRONTAL IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...
WITH SOME LIFR POTENTIAL AT JBR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  72  55  81 /  70  30   0  10
MKL  57  71  52  79 /  80  30   0  10
JBR  55  71  52  80 /  60  20   0  10
TUP  62  73  52  80 /  80  50  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
353 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING...PREDOMINANTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AREA RIVERS AND OTHER WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
RISES AS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.