Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES PROVIDING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE IN THAT SAME AREA TONIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH MAY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY IN THE NORTHEAST AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
ALONG WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

MIDDAY CIGS HAD IMPROVED TO MVFR...WITH ISOLATED VFR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA WAS NOTED ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH
OF MEM...LIFTING NORTHEAST. TS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 22Z
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEM...EASTWARD TO TUP.

TS CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LATE NIGHT STORMS... PARTICULARLY NEAR TUP.

SURFACE TROF WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 15Z TO
18Z SUNDAY PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND TRANSITION TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. JBR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LOW.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  47  51  32  46 / 100  30  10  10
MKL  46  54  31  44 / 100  70  20  20
JBR  43  45  32  44 /  90  30  10  10
TUP  50  59  31  48 / 100  60  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-250045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
543 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN CLARKSDALE TO IUKA LINE.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS
IS A SECONDARY THREAT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALLER HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

JAB