Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
206 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY STORMS ARE GETTING THEIR ACT TOGETHER JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA..SO NOT MUCH TIME TO DISCUSS. LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SURGING INTO EAST TEXAS AND A
1000MB SURFACE LOW WAS JUST NOW ARKANSAS. TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH STRONG BACKED WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE DELTA. SEEMS
VERY PROBABLE FOR A STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500
J/KG. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE AREA.

FURTHER WEST AND NORTH RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. LATEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOW 4 TO 5 INCHES HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FLASHFLOOD WATCH EXPIRES. SOME REPORTS OF
FLOODING HAVE ALSO BEEN SENT TO THE OFFICE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

STORM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT LATE TONIGHT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND REMAIN BREEZY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MORNING HOWEVER. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING FOR
POINTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY.

HOLIDAY WEEK...LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COLDEST DAY EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WHERE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN COLD CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND ON THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR THE LAST
WEEKEND OF 2013.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE KJBR...EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALONG WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS. RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD END
AROUND 03Z WITH A RETURN TO MVFR WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS.

TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING KMEM...KMKL...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER 01Z
TO 03Z...PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TO
07Z. CIGS SHOULD GO VFR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AT KTUP WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. RAIN AND STORMS WILL CLEAR KTUP
AFTER 09Z.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  51  56  32  40 / 100  10  10   0
MKL  52  57  31  39 / 100  10  10   0
JBR  42  48  28  37 /  80  10  10   0
TUP  58  67  36  45 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
307 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-222315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
307 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
TIPTONVILLE TENNESSEE TO A FORREST CITY ARKANSAS LINE. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES... A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

AREAS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES INCLUDE SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA... EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. PEAK TORNADO
RISK TIMING WILL RANGE FROM NOW UNTIL MIDEVENING.

BEYOND MIDEVENING TO MIDNIGHT...THE TORNADO RISK WILL
DECREASE...WHILE DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE.

AREAS NORTHWEST OF A TIPTONVILLE TO FORREST CITY LINE...A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WHERE THE RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH
LATE EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MORE LOCALIZED IN OCCURRENCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
123 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TRUMANN                 35.67N 90.52W
12/21/2013  E5.70 INCH       POINSETT           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 5.70 INCHES OF RAIN
            ACCUMULATION THUS FAR. REPORTS OF FLOODING ON
            NEIGHBORHOOD SIDE STREETS.

&&

AJC