Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHILE A MORE SOLID LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO EAST ARKANSAS. WHILE THERE
ARE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN THESE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SO THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION WITH A
FEW EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT THEN GRADUALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (05/18Z-06/18Z)

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT
KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDED VCTS AT THESE SITES. KEPT OUT MENTION OF VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT KTUP...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
S-SW 8-12 KTS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KJBR AROUND
04Z...KMEM 07Z...KMKL 10Z...AND KTUP 13Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH MVFR / IFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS TURNING W-NW AT 6-8 KTS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KJBR AROUND 06/11Z...KMEM
06/14Z...AND KMKL 06/17Z.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  61  70  51  71 /  90  50  10   0
MKL  60  69  44  68 /  90  70  20   0
JBR  54  71  47  71 /  90  30  10   0
TUP  67  75  49  74 /  60  80  30   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061845-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO TIPTONVILLE TENNESSEE LINE.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE CITY OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.