Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS UNDER SULTRY CONDITIONS WITH HEAT
INDICES OF 105F AND HIGHER IN MANY LOCATIONS...TRIGGERING PERHAPS
THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. SKIES WERE SUNNY AND
THE ONLY RELIEF IS AN OCCASIONAL WESTERLY BREEZE. A WEAK
BOUNDARY/CU FIELD WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE CENTERED FROM NEAR
POCAHONTAS ARKANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO FULTON MISSISSIPPI.
DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE WERE DRIER WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S. ON RADAR STORMS WERE REFORMING NORTH OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI AND SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS OUR AREA.

FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES SLIDES
FURTHER WEST...AND A NEW UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. EFFECTS FROM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH
ANTICIPATED SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL
BLEND PLACING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF 1-55
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEWPOINT
DISCONTINUITY MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE SEVERE AS THEY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA AS OVERNIGHT CAPE
VALUES NEVER FALL BELOW 2500 J/KG.

TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT MORE TRICKY IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION.
FIRST WILL BE THE ABILITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER FROM THE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...AND SECOND THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT
NEAR MAX HEATING. WITH BOTH OF THESE IN MIND FEEL THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS TOMORROW A DEGREE OR TWO AS SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. DEWPOINTS HOWEVER WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW...AND MAYBE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY...SO A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE BORDERLINE. ISSUANCE WILL HAVE TO BE DECIDED BY
THE MIDSHIFT CREW.

STORMS AND THE SULTRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH LATE
TOMORROW FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
LOOKING MORE PLEASANT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST
THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
THE CORE OF THE LOW COMING CLOSEST TO THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS MORE WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS FOUR DAY PERIOD
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THIS IS ROUGHLY FIVE
TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...CALLS FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT NOT
DRASTIC. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW 90S AND A WEAKER UPPER
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
REGION AS EXACT PINPOINTING OF WHERE THE RING OF FIRE SETS UP IS
STILL WELL DOWN THE ROAD.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KMEM EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  77  92  71  86 /  50  50  10  10
MKL  74  90  67  84 /  40  50  10  10
JBR  75  91  68  85 /  60  50  10  10
TUP  75  93  71  88 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
240 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-282145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
240 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MID SOUTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 104-109 DEGREES.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY COMBINE WITH A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA
FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL BE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
440 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

ARZ026-027-272215-
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
440 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  CENTRAL POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO AT 440 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HARRISBURG AND JONESBORO...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 9050 3551 9076 3583 9089 3590 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 337DEG 16KT 3578 9075

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
507 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             5 SW JONESBORO          35.77N 90.75W
06/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE VALLEY VIEW
            AND LAWSON ROAD AREAS.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             TYRONZA                 35.49N 90.36W
06/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       POINSETT           AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN TYRONZA.

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             2 SW TRUMANN            35.65N 90.54W
06/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       POINSETT           AR   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR TRUMANN

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     LIGHTNING        WEST MEMPHIS            35.15N 90.18W
06/27/2013                   CRITTENDEN         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTS 3 PEOPLE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING ON OXFORD
            STREET

&&

JPM

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