River Flood Warning 11, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BOTH INSIDE AN OUTSIDE OF
THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. FLOODING AND
CONVECTIVE STORM DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE BUT WE MAY HEAR OF
A FEW ADDITIONAL REPORTS AFTER SUNRISE. SO FAR...ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WE HAVE SEEN UP TO ABOUT 4.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...THE MOST IN THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS NOW SHIFTING
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH MEMPHIS RESULTING IN A 10
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP AND AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS FRONT...LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY PARIS TENNESSEE TO
STUTTGART ARKANSAS...IS ALSO THE DELINEATION ZONE FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL. ADJUSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY...BUT LEFT A
FEW COUNTIES ON THE WEST EDGE AS A BUFFER. ALSO EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
STILL FEEL LIKE THERE IS A MARGINAL SHOT AT SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK VERY DRY ALONG THE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT FARTHER EAST...MAINLY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI
MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS ONE DEGREE
OF FREEZING MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. A DEEP WARM NOSE AS WARM
AS 42 DEGREES BETWEEN 700 AND 855 MB SHOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SO MOST LIKELY...IF MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE COLD RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. THE KEY
TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS MOISTURE...AND THE NAM IS THE WETTER
SOLUTION AMONG GUIDANCE. GIVEN YESTERDAYS RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES...SOIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN...AND AS STATED
ABOVE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR RAPID
FREEZING OF ANY RAINFALL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE ON
ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY EACH DAY TO MELT ANY ICE IF IT DOES
ACCUMULATE.

BRIEFLY...MIDWEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES BY
SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT VFR CEILINGS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CEILINGS
SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AT KTUP LATER THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  49  29  38  30 /  90  20  30  10
MKL  52  27  38  27 / 100  30  30  20
JBR  39  23  36  24 /  50  20  20  10
TUP  64  35  39  32 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
509 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY FOR
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WEST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO
GLENDORA MISSISSIPPI...AND THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF THIS LINE.

RAIN COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAIN COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 EARLY
MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.