Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. RAINFALL TOTALS ACCORDING TO DUAL POL RADAR EXCEED 3
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WITH ADDITIONAL TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS STILL ON THE RADAR EXTENDING INTO WEST ARKANSAS.
LAPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1.75 INCHES
FROM LITTLE ROCK INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION RATES ABOVE 2 INCHES PER HOUR. WILL EXPLORE THE NEED
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LIKELY MAKE THE CALL AS THE TORNADO
WATCH EXPIRES AT 4 AM. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA YIELDING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
FOR THIS TIME OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS STARTED TO
TREND DOWN THIS PAST HOUR...CAPE IS STILL AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
LI'S AROUND -2.

VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND LIKELY NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI RESULTING IN
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST AND HELPING
TO FOCUS LIFT. ALOFT A NEUTRALLY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THE BROADER FLOW. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS PROVIDING ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR STORMS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN LOWER THAN I WOULD
EXPECT...LIKELY BECAUSE OF A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
MIDSOUTH AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY IN EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WEST TENNESSEE...BUT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY ALSO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING AN END TO OUR SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION ENDING BY LATE SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES LOCALLY WITH 2-3 INCHES
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOODING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS
THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
EARLY IN THE WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW BY MIDWEEK. NO
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE IN THE WORKS FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND SUNRISE BUT
THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  88  73  86  69 /  20  20  60  70
MKL  86  72  84  66 /  30  20  60  80
JBR  85  72  82  65 /  30  20  80  80
TUP  89  71  88  71 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-010330-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
950 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND A
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE AREA AFFECTED IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AROUND WEST
HELENA ARKANSAS TO SOMERVILLE TENNESSEE TO PARIS TENNESSEE.
DAMAGING WINDS....LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING
IN FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE.

IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

JCL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
05/30/2013                   MADISON            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWISTED TREES...A BARN COMPLETELY DESTROYED.

&&

ZDM