Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE TO NEAR JONESBORO ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...TRACKING TO THE EAST APPROACHING THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. A LINE OF STORMS STRETCHES AS FAR WEST AS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALL MOVING TO THE EAST...TRAINING OVER AREAS
WHICH HAVE ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL THINKING ABOUT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MAYBE THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
ZONES...AND ADD A FLOODING THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...BUT MONITOR THE RADAR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE
DECIDING ON THE WATCH. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS...AND IS NOW ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...BUT CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...JUST
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

WE MAY FINALLY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GUIDANCE SHOWS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW DRY DAYS AFTER MIDWEEK...BUT NOTHING
CHANGES QUICKLY IN THE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN...SO I
WOULDN'T GET MY HOPES UP JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE KMKL AREA WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH. AS IT DOES THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
THE KMEM AND KMKL AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THE KTUP THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  92  75  92  75 /  50  40  40  30
MKL  87  71  90  71 /  50  40  40  30
JBR  89  72  92  73 /  50  40  40  30
TUP  93  73  93  73 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
     RANDOLPH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
421 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
421 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.