Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Memphis, TN

253 
WGUS74 KMEG 061728
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

TNC077-061739-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-130806T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON TN-
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
HENDERSON COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3582 8858 3582 8819 3561 8820 3565 8838
      3574 8861

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
IS ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PW/S WERE OBSERVED OFF THE 00Z LZK
SOUNDING TO BE AROUND 2.16 INCHES. THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION FROM
THE MCS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. HAVE GONE
WAY BELOW GUIDANCE AND TRIED TO GO WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO AS HIGH AS THE UPPER
80S.

EXPECT THE MCS TODAY WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL REDUCE POPS TO 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN MISSOURI TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CLIP PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL HAVE A RANGE OF 60 POPS NEAR PARIS
TENNESSEE TO NO POPS NEAR CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ELSEWHERE...CAN/T RULE OUT DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATION THAT WOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME PEAKS OF SUN.
THE COMBINATION OF PEAK HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING AS WELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT STRUGGLES TO PUSH SOUTH DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
THE FRONT. BY MONDAY...THE AREA COULD RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BACK INTO A MCS PATTERN.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

BASED THE FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE AND ONGOING RADAR TRENDS RATHER
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
EXISTING CONVECTION. IN THAT CASE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED
ON RADAR. ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND
VCTS...BUT FEEL LIKE PREVAILING THUNDER ON STATION WILL NOT LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO ADD IT AS A PREVAILING CONDITION. CIGS AND VIS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS COULD BE GUSTY. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 6-12
HOURS IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  83  74  92  77 /  70  30  30  10
MKL  80  74  89  73 /  70  50  50  40
JBR  82  73  91  74 /  80  30  30  50
TUP  89  72  91  75 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
334 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM THESE
STORMS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM