Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Memphis, TN

792 
WGUS74 KMEG 051841
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
141 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

ARC121-051851-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-130805T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RANDOLPH AR-
141 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3650 9141 3650 9109 3626 9109 3627 9127
      3632 9127 3633 9128 3637 9128 3639 9132
      3641 9131 3643 9136 3646 9137 3650 9142

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013/

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW MIDWEEK...AND A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...MCS
/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/ FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
HEAT OF DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. THESE SYSTEMS THEN DEVELOP OR MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE
NIGHT...OFTEN SUPPORTED BY AND ELEVATED WARM AND UNSTABLE LAYER.

THIS MORNING/S GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED AND MCS OVER SOUTHEAST
KS...SHOWING LITTLE APPARENT MOVEMENT...AS BACKBUILDING OF NEW
CELLS OCCURRED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT WAS
OCCURING OVER SOUTHWEST MO... AND APPEARED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN IN EAST/SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. SKIES WERE CLOUDY DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH... WHICH WILL LIMIT INITIAL SURFACE HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. WITH SCATTERED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS NOTED ON
RADAR...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS... WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS PREVAILED
SOUTH OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT
NORTH A BIT TODAY...PROVIDING A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY. WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
MIDLEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH APPEAR
BETTER SITUATED FOR RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP NORTH MS WARMER...BUT NOT LIKELY WARM
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GFS MOS GUIDANCE THURSDAY HIGH TEMP OF 100 FOR
OXFORD.

DIFFICULT TO PUT TOO MUCH DETAIL INTO THE EXTENDED...WHEN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW RETURNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES...BUT HAVE NUDGED THE EVENING PERIODS A LITTLE DRIER
BASED ON CLIMO...AFTER SURFACE HEATING WANES AND THE ARRIVAL OF
MCS FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS MOS GUIDANCE DAYTIME TEMPS REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
POTENTIAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

AN AREA OF SHRAS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AFTER 12Z. ALREADY SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHRAS AROUND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION IF AN EMBEDDED TSRA
WERE TO MOVE OVER KJBR. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INHIBIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR NEAR KTUP. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS AFTER 20Z. LIGHT E WINDS WILL BECOME S TODAY.

KRM

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  87  75  91  77 /  50  20  40  20
MKL  84  69  88  74 /  40  20  50  30
JBR  85  72  89  74 /  60  30  50  20
TUP  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
342 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB