Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Memphis, TN

736 
WGUS74 KMEG 110222
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
922 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

MSC107-119-135-161-110233-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130511T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-PANOLA MS-
922 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PANOLA...SOUTHEASTERN QUITMAN...NORTHERN TALLAHATCHIE AND
NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3428 9029 3428 8988 3422 8986 3405 8983
      3406 9036

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO
NEAR LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THERE WAS CLEARING
EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVERGENCE LINE WHICH IS ROUGHLY
LOCATED FROM JACKSON TO MEMPHIS. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
JACKSON AND MEMPHIS AROUND 12 AM-2 AM. BY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD
BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURE BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION AS A RESULT. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CWA.
MODELS INDICATING BAND WILL DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND LIKELY BEFORE IT REACHES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AS THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST OCCUR. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE
COOL START MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

KRM

AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN AVIATION
AT ME...MKL AND TUP FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS ENDED AT JBR. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR
MEM...BUT ARE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR TUP BETWEEN 02 AND 06Z. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT PREVAILING VIS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG MAINLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS
WILL BE 6-10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...GENERALLY 6-10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  74  49  69 /  30  10  10   0
MKL  57  72  47  66 /  30  10  20   0
JBR  55  72  45  67 /  20  20  20   0
TUP  62  76  52  70 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
ABOUT 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM